This information is current as of September 2026.
Tokyo redevelopment-area condominiums are not always more expensive than their ward overall. Based on our own aggregation of Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) transaction data for redevelopment areas in the greater Tokyo region, of the 14 districts with a sufficient number of transactions, 7 districts rose faster than their ward overall from 2023 to 2025, while the other 7 rose more slowly — an exact 50/50 split.
We are often asked, “Is a condominium in an area with a confirmed redevelopment plan a good buy?” It's natural to feel excited when you hear that a supertall tower is going up in front of a station. But when we lined up the actual transaction prices, a redevelopment project's name recognition did not match its price movement. In this article, we compare actual transaction data across 21 districts in the greater Tokyo area and 1 regional district, and organize the results into five patterns. At the end, we summarize how to use this for investment decisions under “INA's View.”
Key points of this article
- Of the 14 districts with a sufficient number of transactions, 7 rose faster than their ward overall — being a redevelopment area alone does not mean prices will rise.
- Seven districts, including Shakujii, Kachidoki, and Nishi-Shinjuku, outpaced their ward overall. Even Akabane, with the smallest gap, was +5.3 points ahead.
- The four Minato Ward districts of Akasaka, Shimbashi, Takanawa, and Nishiazabu all underperformed Minato Ward's overall rate of increase (+29.2%), even with large-scale redevelopment underway.
- The Meguro Station area (Kamiosaki) fell -5.0% even as its ward rose overall, Chitose Karasuyama (Minami-Karasuyama) was flat at ±0.0%, and Tateishi rose only +4.7%, far below Katsushika Ward overall's +16.5%.
- The key question is not “is there a redevelopment project” but “how much of a premium is already priced in compared with the ward overall.”
Are Tokyo's redevelopment-area condominiums really rising in price?
The short answer: being a redevelopment area alone does not explain rising prices. Some districts far outpaced their ward overall, while others declined even as their ward overall rose.
The table below lines up how the median price per m² of pre-owned condominiums in districts with redevelopment projects moved between 2023 and 2025, alongside the same movement for the ward overall. “Difference” is the district's rate of increase minus the ward overall's rate of increase.
| District (ward) | District's rate of increase | Ward overall's rate of increase | Difference | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakujii (Nerima Ward) | +39.0% | +7.5% | +31.5 points | Substantially above ward overall |
| Kachidoki (Chuo Ward) | +65.4% | +36.7% | +28.7 points | Substantially above ward overall |
| Nishi-Shinjuku (Shinjuku Ward) | +32.6% | +14.8% | +17.8 points | Substantially above ward overall |
| Kamata (Ota Ward) | +16.0% | +6.2% | +9.8 points | Substantially above ward overall |
| Shibuya (Shibuya Ward) | +28.5% | +19.9% | +8.6 points | Substantially above ward overall |
| Itabashi (Itabashi Ward) | +15.3% | +7.5% | +7.8 points | Above ward overall |
| Akabane (Kita Ward) | +12.9% | +7.6% | +5.3 points | Above ward overall |
| Akasaka (Minato Ward) | +24.5% | +29.2% | -4.7 points | Below ward overall |
| Shimbashi (Minato Ward) | +22.0% | +29.2% | -7.2 points | Below ward overall |
| Tateishi (Katsushika Ward) | +4.7% | +16.5% | -11.8 points | Below ward overall |
| Takanawa (Minato Ward) | +16.2% | +29.2% | -13.0 points | Below ward overall |
| Nishiazabu (Minato Ward) | +6.9% | +29.2% | -22.3 points | Below ward overall |
| Meguro Station area / Kamiosaki (Shinagawa Ward) | -5.0% | +14.0% | -19.0 points | Declined or flat |
| Chitose Karasuyama (Setagaya Ward) | ±0.0% | +7.1% | -7.1 points | Declined or flat |
| Omiya (Omiya Ward, Saitama City) | Aggregated at ward level | +25.6% | Not calculated | Comparable only at ward level |
| Uomachi (Kokurakita Ward, Kitakyushu City) | No transactions at this town-name level | ±0.0% | Not calculated | Regional reference |
| Minami-Koiwa (Edogawa Ward) | Insufficient transactions | +8.8% | Not calculated | Not conclusive |
| Iidabashi East Exit / Fujimi (Chiyoda Ward) | Insufficient transactions | +26.2% | Not calculated | Not conclusive |
| Iidabashi (Chiyoda Ward) | Insufficient transactions | +26.2% | Not calculated | Not conclusive |
| Jinnan / Koendori (Shibuya Ward) | Insufficient transactions | +19.9% | Not calculated | Not conclusive |
| Yokohama Station Minami-East Exit / Takashima (Nishi Ward, Yokohama City) | Insufficient transactions | +20.0% | Not calculated | Not conclusive |
| Yurakucho (Chiyoda Ward) | No transactions | +26.2% | Not calculated | Not conclusive |
Methodology and notes on reading the figures
For this analysis we used “pre-owned condominium” transactions published in MLIT's Real Estate Information Library. We lined up the transaction price per m² of exclusive floor area by year and took the median. 2026 includes only Q1 (January–March) transactions, and because transactions are added later, these figures are provisional.
Districts are aggregated only from transactions in the town names within the redevelopment project's implementation area (planned site). Towns near a different station with a similar-sounding name (such as Kami-Shakujii or Higashi-Tateishi) are excluded even if the name looks similar.
| District name used in the tables | Town names included in the aggregation |
|---|---|
| Shakujii | Shakujii-machi (石神井町) only (excludes Shakujii-dai 石神井台, Kami-Shakujii 上石神井, and Shimo-Shakujii 下石神井) |
| Akabane | Akabane (赤羽) only (excludes Akabane-kita 赤羽北, Akabane-nishi 赤羽西, Akabane-minami 赤羽南, and Akabane-dai 赤羽台) |
| Tateishi | Tateishi (立石) only (excludes Higashi-Tateishi 東立石) |
| Akasaka | Akasaka (赤坂) only (excludes Moto-Akasaka 元赤坂) |
| Shimbashi | Shimbashi (新橋) only (excludes Higashi-Shimbashi 東新橋 and Nishi-Shimbashi 西新橋) |
| Itabashi | Itabashi (板橋) only (excludes Kami-Itabashi 上板橋 and Naka-Itabashi 中板橋) |
| Kamata | Kamata (葙田) only (excludes Nishi-Kamata 西葙田, Minami-Kamata 南葙田, Shin-Kamata 新葙田, and others) |
| Chitose Karasuyama | Minami-Karasuyama (南烏山) only (excludes Kita-Karasuyama 北烏山) |
| All others | Only the town name matching the table's district name (Kachidoki excludes Tsukishima 月島; the Meguro Station area refers to Kamiosaki 上大崎) |
There are three things to keep in mind when reading these figures.
- The rate of increase compares 2023 and 2025. Districts with fewer than 30 transactions in a given year are set aside separately, since a trend cannot be judged from so few transactions.
- The median moves with the mix of units sold that year. If a cluster of newer, higher-priced units happens to sell in a given year, the median can rise even if the overall market has not changed.
- In this data, Omiya is aggregated at the level of Omiya Ward, Saitama City overall, so no ward-level difference can be calculated. Uomachi in Kitakyushu City had no transactions at the town-name level, so we show only the figures for Kokurakita Ward overall as a reference.
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), Real Estate Information Library (国土交通省 不動産情報ライブラリー, https://www.reinfolib.mlit.go.jp/), “Real Estate Transaction Price Information” (MLIT), compiled by INA&Associates Inc. Based on data obtainable as of September 2026. The most recent quarter is a provisional figure, as transactions are added later. This data is not guaranteed to be current, accurate, or complete.
Main redevelopment projects and target completion dates by district
| District | Main redevelopment project | Target completion (planned) | Full explanation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kachidoki | Kachidoki East District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | October 2028 | Top 5 Redevelopment Projects in Chuo Ward's Waterfront Area |
| Shakujii | Shakujii Kōen Station South Exit West District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | April 2028 | Shakujiikoen Station Redevelopment: Transforming Tokyo's Nerima Ward |
| Nishi-Shinjuku | Nishi-Shinjuku 3-chome West District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | FY2035 (per the association's latest plan as presented by Shinjuku Ward) | Nishi-Shinjuku 3-chome West District Redevelopment: The Full Picture |
| Itabashi | Itabashi Station Itabashi-guchi District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | June 2027 | JR Itabashi Station Redevelopment: Transforming Itabashi's Gateway |
| Kamata | Keikyu Kamata Center Area North District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project (the West Exit Station-Front District was already completed in December 2015) | Not announced (Ota Ward materials indicate roughly 7–10 years from city-planning decision to construction completion) | Keikyu Kamata West Exit Redevelopment: The Full Picture |
| Shibuya | Shibuya 2-chome West District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | February 2035 (per the project plan approved after the August 2026 revision) | Shibuya 2-Chome West District Redevelopment |
| Shibuya | Miyamasuzaka District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | FY2031 | Miyamasuzaka District Redevelopment |
| Akabane | Akabane 1-chome First District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | June 2029 | Akabane 1-Chome First District Redevelopment |
| Tateishi | Tateishi Station North Exit District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | March 2030 | Tateishi Station North Exit Redevelopment |
| Omiya | Omiya Station “Grand Central Station” Concept (the Daimoncho 2-chome Naka District was already completed in March 2022) | No fixed completion date, as this is still a concept | Omiya Station: Transforming Saitama's Transit and Urban Landscape |
| Akasaka | Akasaka 2- and 6-chome District Development Plan | March 2028 (building completion) | Akasaka 2- and 6-chome District Development Plan |
| Shimbashi | Shimbashi Station East Exit District (an urban redevelopment preparatory association was established in February 2025) | Not announced | JR Shimbashi Station East Exit Redevelopment |
| Takanawa | Sengakuji Station District Type 2 Urban Redevelopment Project | FY2031 | Sengakuji Station District Type 2 Urban Redevelopment |
| Nishiazabu | Nishiazabu 3-chome Northeast District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | December 2029 (Block A) | Nishiazabu 3-Chome Northeast District Redevelopment |
| Meguro Station area (Kamiosaki) | Meguro Station Front District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | November 2017 (completed) | Meguro Station Redevelopment and Real Estate Values |
| Chitose Karasuyama | Chitose Karasuyama Station South Plaza District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project (currently undergoing city-planning procedures) | FY2034 (target set by the preparatory association) | Chitose Karasuyama Station South Plaza District Redevelopment |
| Uomachi | Uomachi 3-chome Block 2 District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | FY2027 (per Kitakyushu City materials as of March 2021) | Uomachi 3-Chome Block 2 District Redevelopment |
| Minami-Koiwa | Minami-Koiwa 7-chome Station-Front District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | Not announced | Minami-Koiwa 7-Chome Station-Front District Redevelopment |
| Iidabashi East Exit (Fujimi) | Iidabashi Station East District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | Not yet determined (per Tokyo Metropolitan Government project page) | Iidabashi Station East District Redevelopment: Schedule Revision |
| Iidabashi | Iidabashi Station Central District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | Not announced | Iidabashi Station Central District Redevelopment |
| Jinnan (Koendori) | Koendori West District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | FY2032 | Koendori West District Redevelopment |
| Yokohama Station Minami-East Exit (Takashima) | (Tentatively named) Yokohama Station Minami-East Exit District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project | In service FY2037 (per the environmental impact assessment scoping document; subject to change) | Yokohama Station Minami-East Exit District Redevelopment |
| Yurakucho | Yurakucho Building and Shin-Yurakucho Building Reconstruction Plan | The main building is not yet announced (the interim-use facility “YURAKUCHO PARK” is scheduled for completion in 2027) | Yurakucho Building and Shin-Yurakucho Building Reconstruction Plan |
Target completion dates are based on what could be confirmed from materials published by the Tokyo Metropolitan Bureau of Urban Development, each ward or city, and the project operators. They are subject to change due to delays or plan revisions. Except for items marked “completed,” all dates are projections.
Which redevelopment areas rose faster than their ward overall?
The seven districts that outpaced their ward's overall rate of increase were Shakujii, Kachidoki, Nishi-Shinjuku, Kamata, Shibuya, Itabashi, and Akabane. Five of these beat their ward by 8 points or more, and Itabashi and Akabane also beat it by 5 points or more. They ranged from the central waterfront to residential areas in Nerima and Kita Wards, with widely varying locations and price ranges.
Lining up the year-by-year trend alongside the ward overall gives the following.
| District / ward | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Jan–Mar 2026 (provisional) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kachidoki | ¥1,285,000 (284 transactions) | ¥1,724,000 (326 transactions) | ¥2,125,000 (308 transactions) | ¥1,882,000 (37 transactions) |
| (Chuo Ward overall) | ¥1,273,000 (1849 transactions) | ¥1,467,000 (1840 transactions) | ¥1,740,000 (2042 transactions) | ¥1,857,000 (354 transactions) |
| Shakujii | ¥757,000 (54 transactions) | ¥987,000 (61 transactions) | ¥1,052,000 (68 transactions) | ¥1,054,000 (12 transactions) |
| (Nerima Ward overall) | ¥733,000 (1454 transactions) | ¥800,000 (1448 transactions) | ¥788,000 (1596 transactions) | ¥785,000 (306 transactions) |
| Nishi-Shinjuku | ¥1,200,000 (231 transactions) | ¥1,326,000 (218 transactions) | ¥1,591,000 (262 transactions) | ¥1,560,000 (51 transactions) |
| (Shinjuku Ward overall) | ¥1,150,000 (1807 transactions) | ¥1,257,000 (1834 transactions) | ¥1,320,000 (2134 transactions) | ¥1,320,000 (397 transactions) |
| Itabashi | ¥867,000 (100 transactions) | ¥900,000 (107 transactions) | ¥1,000,000 (112 transactions) | ¥889,000 (23 transactions) |
| (Itabashi Ward overall) | ¥720,000 (1609 transactions) | ¥757,000 (1696 transactions) | ¥774,000 (1882 transactions) | ¥833,000 (401 transactions) |
| Kamata | ¥960,000 (123 transactions) | ¥1,041,000 (116 transactions) | ¥1,114,000 (141 transactions) | ¥980,000 (18 transactions) |
| (Ota Ward overall) | ¥856,000 (1898 transactions) | ¥877,000 (2154 transactions) | ¥909,000 (2410 transactions) | ¥867,000 (390 transactions) |
| Shibuya | ¥1,712,000 (34 transactions) | ¥1,650,000 (46 transactions) | ¥2,200,000 (66 transactions) | ¥2,243,000 (8 transactions) |
| (Shibuya Ward overall) | ¥1,314,000 (1174 transactions) | ¥1,467,000 (1214 transactions) | ¥1,575,000 (1393 transactions) | ¥1,629,000 (257 transactions) |
| Akabane | ¥1,000,000 (50 transactions) | ¥1,000,000 (54 transactions) | ¥1,129,000 (47 transactions) | ¥1,432,000 (6 transactions) |
| (Kita Ward overall) | ¥867,000 (866 transactions) | ¥880,000 (921 transactions) | ¥933,000 (1026 transactions) | ¥1,000,000 (215 transactions) |
Kachidoki, which had the largest rate of increase, rose from ¥1,285,000 in 2023 to ¥2,125,000 in 2025. Applying the median unit price to a 70 m² unit, that works out to roughly ¥90.0 million rising to roughly ¥148.8 million. Chuo Ward overall also rose sharply, by +36.7%, but Kachidoki outpaced even that by a further 28.7 points.
The district with the largest gap versus its ward overall was Shakujii. In 2023 it was almost the same as Nerima Ward overall, at ¥757,000, but while Nerima Ward overall fell from ¥800,000 in 2024 to ¥788,000 in 2025, Shakujii rose to ¥1,052,000. Jan–Mar 2026 was similar to 2025 at ¥1,054,000, but with only 12 transactions this is a provisional figure and cannot be called a trend.
Akabane rose from ¥1,000,000 in 2023 to ¥1,129,000 in 2025, or +12.9%, ahead of Kita Ward overall's +7.6%. It was higher than Kita Ward overall in all three years. The Jan–Mar 2026 figure of ¥1,432,000 is based on only 6 transactions and cannot be judged.
Shibuya had only 34 transactions in 2023, the fewest of these seven districts. 2024, at ¥1,650,000, was below the prior year, so please treat the 2023–2025 rate of increase as a figure that includes year-to-year fluctuation.
Redevelopment areas that underperformed their ward overall
Tateishi underperformed Katsushika Ward's overall rate of increase by 11.8 points. The four Minato Ward districts of Akasaka, Shimbashi, Takanawa, and Nishiazabu also all underperformed Minato Ward's overall rate of increase.
Tateishi, which fell short of ward-wide growth, and Omiya, which can only be compared at the ward level
| District / ward | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Jan–Mar 2026 (provisional) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tateishi | ¥573,000 (56 transactions) | ¥637,000 (60 transactions) | ¥600,000 (62 transactions) | ¥523,000 (7 transactions) |
| (Katsushika Ward overall) | ¥538,000 (816 transactions) | ¥600,000 (861 transactions) | ¥627,000 (979 transactions) | ¥632,000 (190 transactions) |
Tateishi was above Katsushika Ward overall in 2023 and 2024, but fell from ¥637,000 in 2024 to ¥600,000 in 2025, dropping below Katsushika Ward overall's ¥627,000. Its rate of increase was +4.7%, short of Katsushika Ward overall's +16.5%. The Jan–Mar 2026 figure of ¥523,000 is based on only 7 transactions and cannot be judged.
Omiya, aggregated at the level of Omiya Ward, Saitama City overall, rose from ¥637,000 (250 transactions) in 2023 to ¥800,000 (353 transactions) in 2025, or +25.6%. Because this is aggregated at the ward level, this data cannot tell us whether strength is concentrated around the station specifically.
Four districts that underperformed Minato Ward overall despite large-scale development
| District / ward | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Jan–Mar 2026 (provisional) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akasaka | ¥1,500,000 (179 transactions) | ¥1,583,000 (167 transactions) | ¥1,867,000 (191 transactions) | ¥2,211,000 (36 transactions) |
| (Minato Ward overall) | ¥1,467,000 (2081 transactions) | ¥1,667,000 (1993 transactions) | ¥1,895,000 (2241 transactions) | ¥2,000,000 (432 transactions) |
| Shimbashi | ¥1,475,000 (33 transactions) | ¥1,698,000 (28 transactions) | ¥1,800,000 (43 transactions) | ¥2,500,000 (5 transactions) |
| (Minato Ward overall) | ¥1,467,000 (2081 transactions) | ¥1,667,000 (1993 transactions) | ¥1,895,000 (2241 transactions) | ¥2,000,000 (432 transactions) |
| Takanawa | ¥1,638,000 (188 transactions) | ¥1,633,000 (170 transactions) | ¥1,904,000 (172 transactions) | ¥1,930,000 (34 transactions) |
| (Minato Ward overall) | ¥1,467,000 (2081 transactions) | ¥1,667,000 (1993 transactions) | ¥1,895,000 (2241 transactions) | ¥2,000,000 (432 transactions) |
| Nishiazabu | ¥1,684,000 (62 transactions) | ¥1,738,000 (72 transactions) | ¥1,800,000 (85 transactions) | ¥1,790,000 (12 transactions) |
| (Minato Ward overall) | ¥1,467,000 (2081 transactions) | ¥1,667,000 (1993 transactions) | ¥1,895,000 (2241 transactions) | ¥2,000,000 (432 transactions) |
Minato Ward overall rose from ¥1,467,000 in 2023 to ¥1,895,000 in 2025, or +29.2%. Akasaka's rate of increase was +24.5% and Shimbashi's was +22.0%, both falling short of Minato Ward overall. Shimbashi was roughly level with Minato Ward overall through 2024, but in 2025 it fell to ¥1,800,000, below Minato Ward overall.
The largest gap was in Nishiazabu. In 2023 its ¥1,684,000 was above Minato Ward overall, but by 2025 it had only reached ¥1,800,000, and was overtaken by Minato Ward overall's ¥1,895,000. Takanawa was also flat from 2023 to 2024, with a rate of increase of +16.2%.
Shimbashi's Jan–Mar 2026 figure of ¥2,500,000 is based on only 5 transactions and cannot be judged.
Districts where prices fell, a regional area that hasn't moved, and districts that can't be judged
The Meguro Station area (Kamiosaki) fell below its 2023 level even as its ward overall rose, and Chitose Karasuyama was flat. Kokurakita Ward in Kitakyushu City has barely moved over the past three years.
Meguro Station area and Chitose Karasuyama: decline and flat while their wards rose overall
| District / ward | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Jan–Mar 2026 (provisional) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meguro Station area (Kamiosaki) | ¥1,644,000 (73 transactions) | ¥1,833,000 (81 transactions) | ¥1,561,000 (106 transactions) | ¥1,556,000 (21 transactions) |
| (Shinagawa Ward overall) | ¥1,140,000 (1753 transactions) | ¥1,222,000 (1821 transactions) | ¥1,300,000 (2043 transactions) | ¥1,338,000 (358 transactions) |
| Chitose Karasuyama | ¥778,000 (95 transactions) | ¥890,000 (62 transactions) | ¥778,000 (95 transactions) | ¥807,000 (16 transactions) |
| (Setagaya Ward overall) | ¥968,000 (2115 transactions) | ¥1,000,000 (2161 transactions) | ¥1,037,000 (2540 transactions) | ¥1,100,000 (451 transactions) |
In the Meguro Station area (Kamiosaki), the Meguro Station Front District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project was completed in November 2017 (Shinagawa Ward). The median unit price rose to ¥1,833,000 in 2024, then fell to ¥1,561,000 in 2025. Shinagawa Ward overall rose from ¥1,222,000 to ¥1,300,000 over the same period. 2025 had 106 transactions, more than the prior year, so the median may have moved significantly depending on which units happened to sell.
Chitose Karasuyama (Minami-Karasuyama) was flat at ¥778,000 in both 2023 and 2025, falling short of Setagaya Ward overall's +7.1%. It moved up and down around ¥890,000 in 2024.
Regional redevelopment: Kokurakita Ward has been almost flat for three years
For Uomachi in Kitakyushu City, no transactions at the town-name level were included in this data. As a reference, Kokurakita Ward overall was ¥186,000 (247 transactions) in 2023, ¥171,000 (249 transactions) in 2024, ¥186,000 (307 transactions) in 2025, and ¥171,000 (36 transactions) in Jan–Mar 2026. 2023 and 2025 were the same at ¥186,000 — a completely different pattern from any of the Tokyo wards.
Districts with too few transactions to judge
The following districts had fewer than 30 transactions in either 2023 or 2025, so we have not used their rate of increase as evidence of a trend. The figures are shown for reference only.
| District / ward | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Jan–Mar 2026 (provisional) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minami-Koiwa | ¥684,000 (22 transactions) | ¥893,000 (27 transactions) | ¥1,000,000 (45 transactions) | ¥1,343,000 (15 transactions) |
| (Edogawa Ward overall) | ¥600,000 (846 transactions) | ¥600,000 (897 transactions) | ¥653,000 (1108 transactions) | ¥693,000 (216 transactions) |
| Iidabashi East Exit (Fujimi) | ¥2,349,000 (6 transactions) | ¥2,462,000 (15 transactions) | ¥3,286,000 (25 transactions) | ¥3,600,000 (3 transactions) |
| (Chiyoda Ward overall) | ¥1,341,000 (500 transactions) | ¥1,429,000 (497 transactions) | ¥1,692,000 (615 transactions) | ¥2,000,000 (100 transactions) |
| Iidabashi | ¥1,686,000 (26 transactions) | ¥1,779,000 (26 transactions) | ¥2,000,000 (35 transactions) | ¥2,000,000 (7 transactions) |
| (Chiyoda Ward overall) | ¥1,341,000 (500 transactions) | ¥1,429,000 (497 transactions) | ¥1,692,000 (615 transactions) | ¥2,000,000 (100 transactions) |
| Jinnan (Koendori) | ¥1,533,000 (4 transactions) | ¥1,600,000 (6 transactions) | ¥2,265,000 (4 transactions) | No transactions |
| (Shibuya Ward overall) | ¥1,314,000 (1174 transactions) | ¥1,467,000 (1214 transactions) | ¥1,575,000 (1393 transactions) | ¥1,629,000 (257 transactions) |
| Yokohama Station Minami-East Exit (Takashima) | ¥1,052,000 (24 transactions) | ¥1,300,000 (28 transactions) | ¥1,392,000 (20 transactions) | ¥1,517,000 (2 transactions) |
| (Nishi Ward, Yokohama City overall) | ¥850,000 (593 transactions) | ¥933,000 (633 transactions) | ¥1,020,000 (745 transactions) | ¥1,000,000 (147 transactions) |
Minami-Koiwa had 22 transactions in 2023 and 27 in 2024. Iidabashi East Exit (Fujimi) and the Yokohama Station Minami-East Exit area (Takashima) both had fewer than 30 transactions in every year. Yurakucho had no pre-owned condominium transactions in this data under a town name that includes “Yurakucho.”
How much do redevelopment-area condominiums actually trade for?
Looking at actual transaction prices from January 2025 through March 2026, even limited to districts with a sufficient number of transactions, the median ranges from ¥26 million in Tateishi to ¥130 million in Kachidoki — a fivefold spread. Even within the same category of “redevelopment area,” buyers in different districts are comparing completely different kinds of properties.
| District | Number of transactions | Median transaction price | Median exclusive floor area | Interquartile price range (25th–75th percentile) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kachidoki | 345 transactions | ¥130 million | 70 m² | ¥95 million – ¥190 million |
| Shakujii | 80 transactions | ¥67.5 million | 65 m² | ¥43 million – ¥89.8 million |
| Nishi-Shinjuku | 313 transactions | ¥65 million | 45 m² | ¥32.5 million – ¥140 million |
| Itabashi | 135 transactions | ¥34 million | 35 m² | ¥23 million – ¥52 million |
| Kamata | 159 transactions | ¥37 million | 35 m² | ¥25 million – ¥54 million |
| Shibuya | 74 transactions | ¥120 million | 50 m² | ¥58.2 million – ¥180 million |
| Akabane | 53 transactions | ¥65 million | 55 m² | ¥29.5 million – ¥79 million |
| Tateishi | 69 transactions | ¥26 million | 50 m² | ¥16.5 million – ¥43 million |
| Omiya | 429 transactions | ¥54 million | 70 m² | ¥27 million – ¥75 million |
| Akasaka | 227 transactions | ¥110 million | 55 m² | ¥34 million – ¥230 million |
| Shimbashi | 48 transactions | ¥49 million | 30 m² | ¥31.2 million – ¥100 million |
| Takanawa | 206 transactions | ¥100 million | 55 m² | ¥48 million – ¥200 million |
| Nishiazabu | 97 transactions | ¥85 million | 45 m² | ¥39.5 million – ¥135 million |
| Meguro Station area (Kamiosaki) | 127 transactions | ¥87 million | 55 m² | ¥52 million – ¥140 million |
| Chitose Karasuyama | 111 transactions | ¥36 million | 55 m² | ¥19 million – ¥64 million |
| Minami-Koiwa | 60 transactions | ¥76.5 million | 70 m² | ¥49.2 million – ¥93.2 million |
| Iidabashi East Exit (Fujimi) | 28 transactions | ¥230 million | 70 m² | ¥110 million – ¥320 million |
| Iidabashi | 42 transactions | ¥110 million | 58 m² | ¥57.8 million – ¥190 million |
| Jinnan (Koendori) | 4 transactions | ¥107.5 million | 48 m² | Too few transactions to calculate |
| Yokohama Station Minami-East Exit (Takashima) | 22 transactions | ¥67 million | 55 m² | ¥19.8 million – ¥152.5 million |
The interquartile price range shows the price from the 25th to the 75th percentile when sorted from cheapest to most expensive. Akasaka's range is wide, from ¥34 million to ¥230 million, suggesting a mix of units with different sizes and ages. Rather than comparing districts only by median unit price, check where the size and price of the unit you're considering fall within this range.
Source: Compiled by INA&Associates Inc. from Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) Real Estate Information Library (国土交通省 不動産情報ライブラリー) data described above in “Methodology and notes on reading the figures” (transactions from January 2025 through March 2026; 2026 figures are provisional).
If you'd like to use district-level transaction data for a specific pricing decision, please consult INA&Associates Inc. We'll work through everything with you, from how to read comparable transactions to the timing of a purchase or sale.
INA's View
From here on, this is our own assessment based on the data — it is not a promise about future prices. When considering a redevelopment-area condominium, we recommend starting from “how much of a premium is already priced in compared with the ward overall” rather than “is there a redevelopment project.”
Five patterns and the judgment criteria for each
| Pattern | Districts | Our assessment | Judgment criteria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expectations already priced in | Shakujii, Kachidoki, Nishi-Shinjuku, Kamata, Shibuya, Itabashi, Akabane | We see much of the redevelopment expectation as already reflected in price | Be cautious about buying on the assumption of further capital gains. For current owners, we think this may be a reasonable time to also weigh a sale |
| Not yet priced in | Tateishi | It has underperformed its ward overall, so no redevelopment premium is visible in price yet | Check the length of time to target completion and tenant demand first |
| Underperforming the ward average despite large-scale development | Akasaka, Shimbashi, Takanawa, Nishiazabu | Minato Ward overall is strong, and the district's development alone hasn't let it pull ahead within the ward | We don't see, in the data, a reason to pay a premium simply because “there is a redevelopment project” |
| Declined or flat | Meguro Station area (Kamiosaki), Chitose Karasuyama | We think the mix of individual units sold also has a large effect here | Buyers have room to negotiate. Compare against transactions filtered by building age and size |
| Regional areas aren't moving | Uomachi (Kokurakita Ward) | The redevelopment isn't large enough to move the ward's overall market | Rather than price appreciation, look at whether disaster resilience and commercial reorganization improve livability |
Some districts in the “expectations already priced in” group have projects that will take years to complete. The Shibuya 2-chome West District, per the project plan approved after the August 2026 revision, is due for completion in February 2035, and the Nishi-Shinjuku 3-chome West District is set for FY2035 under Shinjuku Ward's latest plan. Given that prices are already moving nearly a decade ahead of completion, we believe you should first confirm whether your financing plan can absorb delays or changes in interest rates.
“Not yet priced in” and “will never be priced in” cannot be distinguished in this data. Whether Tateishi eventually catches up with its ward overall needs to be checked again as completion approaches.
What stands out about the Meguro Station area is that, per Shinagawa Ward's own announcement, the redevelopment project was already completed back in 2017. The fact that the median fell between 2024 and 2025, roughly seven years after completion, shows us that “once it's completed, prices keep rising” is not something you can assume.
Three numbers to check before you buy
- Gap versus the ward overall: how much the district's rate of increase exceeds its ward overall's. The larger the gap, the more we believe expectations are already priced in.
- Number of transactions: whether the district has 30 or more transactions per year. In districts with few transactions, the rate of increase can swing sharply on a single high-value sale.
- Where the unit falls within the price range: whether the price of the unit you're considering falls in the upper or lower half of the interquartile range. If it's in the upper half, reconsider whether part of the price reflects the redevelopment's buzz rather than fundamentals.
We believe rent and yield are determined more by individual factors — distance from the station, size, building age — than by a redevelopment's buzz. We have not aggregated rental transaction data for this article, so we refrain from asserting a conclusion with figures.
What matters to us is sharing the unfavorable numbers along with the promising ones, not just the expectations. If you're considering buying or selling a condominium in a Tokyo redevelopment area, please consult INA&Associates Inc. We'll work through everything with you, from district-versus-ward comparisons to property-by-property judgment.
Frequently asked questions
Q1. Do condominiums in Tokyo redevelopment areas go up in price?
A. Being a redevelopment area alone doesn't mean prices will rise. In our analysis, of the 14 districts with a sufficient number of transactions, 7 rose faster than their ward overall and the remaining 7 underperformed it. Some districts, such as the four in Minato Ward and the Meguro Station area, fall short of their ward overall even with large-scale development underway.
Q2. Is it better to buy before or after a redevelopment project is completed?
A. Judge by how much of a premium is already priced in compared with the ward overall, rather than by whether it's before or after completion. In the Meguro Station area, the median unit price fell between 2024 and 2025, years after the redevelopment was completed in 2017. It is safer not to assume that prices will keep rising once construction is complete.
Q3. If a redevelopment area is due to complete around 2030, is it still worth buying now?
A. The degree to which redevelopment is already priced in varies by district. Districts like Kachidoki and Nishi-Shinjuku, which have substantially outpaced their ward overall, have already seen their prices move. For districts like Tateishi that have fallen short of ward-wide growth, weigh the possibility of the target completion date slipping further before deciding.
Q4. How should I check the market for a district with few transactions?
A. For a district with fewer than 30 transactions a year, look at it alongside figures for the ward overall and neighboring town names. Because a single high-value transaction can move the median significantly, judging by the rate of increase alone can be misleading. The most reliable approach is to line up individual comparable transactions close in building age and size to the property you're considering.
Related reading
Citations and references
- MLIT Real Estate Information Library
- Tokyo Metropolitan Bureau of Urban Development, “Kachidoki East District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Nerima Ward, Overview of the Project Plan for the “Shakujii Kōen Station South Exit West District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Shinjuku Ward, “Nishi-Shinjuku 3-chome West District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Tokyo Metropolitan Bureau of Urban Development, “Itabashi Station Itabashi-guchi District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Ota Ward, “Keikyu Kamata West Exit Station-Front District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Ota Ward, “Keikyu Kamata Center Area North District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Ota Ward, Briefing Session Materials (August–September 2025)
- Shibuya Ward, “Shibuya 2-chome West District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Shibuya Ward, Revised Project Plan for the Shibuya 2-chome West District
- Tokyo Metropolitan Bureau of Urban Development, “Miyamasuzaka District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Tokyo Metropolitan Bureau of Urban Development, “Akabane 1-chome First District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Tokyo Metropolitan Bureau of Urban Development, “Tateishi Station North Exit District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Saitama City, “Omiya Station Grand Central Station Concept”
- Saitama City, “Omiya Station East Exit Daimoncho 2-chome Naka District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Mitsubishi Estate / TBS Holdings, Construction Start for the “Akasaka 2- and 6-chome District Development Plan” (March 13, 2024)
- Shimbashi Station East Exit District Urban Redevelopment Preparatory Association, “Background to Date”
- Tokyo Metropolitan Bureau of Urban Development, “Sengakuji Station District Type 2 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Tokyo Metropolitan Bureau of Urban Development, “Nishiazabu 3-chome Northeast District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Shinagawa Ward, “Meguro Station Front District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Setagaya Ward, Public Notice of the City Planning Proposal for the “Chitose Karasuyama Station South Plaza District”
- Setagaya Ward, Briefing Session Materials (June 2025)
- Kitakyushu City, Preliminary Evaluation Report for the “Uomachi 3-chome Block 2 District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Edogawa Ward, “Minami-Koiwa 7-chome Station-Front District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Tokyo Metropolitan Bureau of Urban Development, “Iidabashi Station East District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Tokyo Metropolitan Bureau of Urban Development, “Iidabashi Station Central District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Tokyo Metropolitan Bureau of Urban Development, “Koendori West District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Yokohama City, Environmental Impact Assessment Scoping Document for the “(Tentatively Named) Yokohama Station Minami-East Exit District Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project”
- Mitsubishi Estate, Notice on the Planned Completion of “YURAKUCHO PARK” (August 28, 2026)
