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Why Is the Gap Between Transaction Prices and Asking Prices Widening? Understanding Today's Real Estate Market Through Data

In the Greater Tokyo used condominium market, the gap between the "asking price" and the "actual transaction price" has widened to an unprecedented level. According to data from the East Japan Real Estate Information Network for East Japan (REINS), the difference between the transaction price per square meter and the inventory price per square meter has reached approximately JPY 180,000 per square meter. In this article, we will examine how this "gap" has evolved and what it means, based on the latest data.

What Are the "Price Properties Sold For" and the "Price Properties Are Listed At"? Understanding the Gap Between Transaction Prices and Asking Prices

There are two prices in the real estate market. One is the price at which a property is "listed for sale" on portal sites and by real estate companies, in other words, the asking unit price (inventory price per square meter / newly listed price per square meter). The other is the price at which a buyer was actually found and the transaction was completed, namely the transaction unit price (transaction price per square meter).

Normally, the listing price reflects the seller's desired price and is set somewhat higher than the transaction price. However, when this difference becomes too large, a certain kind of "distortion" emerges in the market. Even if sellers believe a property will sell at a certain level, the gap between that expectation and what buyers can actually pay widens, resulting in more cases where properties remain unsold for a long period or ultimately require significant price reductions.

What Does the Widening Gap Look Like in the Data? Reading the Latest Market Data

Latest REINS Data (released in February 2026, for January 2026)

According to Market Watch published by the East Japan Real Estate Information Network for East Japan, the transaction price per square meter for used condominiums in the Greater Tokyo area was JPY 869,900 (up 6.3% year on year), marking 70 consecutive months of increases. Meanwhile, the inventory price per square meter rose to JPY 1,051,500 (up 31.5% year on year), increasing at a pace far exceeding the transaction price.

The difference between the two has reached approximately JPY 180,000 per square meter, which translates into a gap of roughly JPY 12.6 million for a 70-square-meter unit. Looking at 2025 as a whole, the newly listed price per square meter was JPY 959,800 against a transaction price per square meter of JPY 829,800, confirming a gap of around JPY 130,000.

What deserves attention is that while the transaction price rose by 6.3%, the inventory price increased by 31.5%, showing growth nearly five times greater. In other words, against a backdrop that includes surging construction costs for newly built properties, sellers are raising prices at a pace that significantly exceeds the actual market level.

Tokyo Kantei's Price Gap Rate

According to Tokyo Kantei, the price gap rate for used condominiums in the Greater Tokyo area in the second half of 2024 was -4.19%. Against an average listing price of JPY 48.71 million per unit, the transaction price was JPY 46.67 million, a difference of about JPY 2 million.

What is interesting is that this figure of -4.19% represents the smallest gap since 2015. At first glance, it may appear that the gap is narrowing, but this figure only covers properties that actually reached a transaction. High-priced properties that failed to sell are excluded from the statistics, so in the actual market, the gap between the "price sellers want" and the "price buyers will pay" should be considered even larger.

Trends in Transaction Volume and Inventory Volume

The number of transactions has increased year on year for 16 consecutive months, indicating that trading activity itself remains active. However, inventory has stayed around 45,000 listings, suggesting a structure in which higher-priced properties remain on the market. In other words, the polarization between "properties that sell" and "properties that do not sell" is advancing.

Why Is the Gap Widening? Explaining Five Background Factors

1. Persistently High Construction Costs

Rising material costs and labor costs have led to a significant increase in the supply price of newly built condominiums. This creates seller psychology along the lines of, "If new properties are this expensive, a used property should also sell at this price," which pushes up listing prices for used properties as well.

2. Lower Purchase Limits for Buyers Due to Higher Interest Rates

Since the autumn of 2024, housing loan interest rates have been on an upward trend. Both floating and fixed rates have been raised, reducing the amount buyers can borrow even with the same annual income. As a result, the upper price limit buyers can actually pay has fallen, widening the difference from listing prices.

3. Polarization Between Central Tokyo and the Suburbs

While Tokyo's transaction price per tsubo continues to rise strongly at +8.3% year on year, Kanagawa has fallen -4.9%, Saitama -3.3%, and Chiba -3.4%, with all areas outside Tokyo turning negative. In central urban areas, properties continue to sell even at high prices, but in suburban areas, price adjustments have begun. This regional temperature gap is also a factor widening the overall gap across the Greater Tokyo market.

4. Concentrated Overseas Money and Affluent Buyer Demand

Against the backdrop of the weak yen, there are more cases of overseas investors and affluent buyers purchasing high-priced properties in central Tokyo. However, this demand is concentrated in specific areas and price bands, pushing up the overall inventory price per square meter while creating a situation in which average buyers find it difficult to participate.

5. Sellers Setting "Challenge Prices"

Tokyo Kantei analyzes that the market remains in a state where buyers are still found even when properties are listed at "challenge prices" set above the market level. Although the average time to close a sale exceeded five months for the first time since 2015, sellers still show a clear reluctance to cut prices. Supported by expectations of further construction cost increases and a historically weak yen, both sellers and brokerage companies are maintaining a bullish stance.

What Actions Should Owners Take? Sale and Holding Strategies in an Era of Wider Gaps

For Owners Considering a Sale

The most important point is to determine an appropriate price based not on the "listing price" but on "transaction data". Even if you list at a high price in line with nearby asking prices, it has little meaning if the property does not reach a transaction. It is important to use tools such as the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's Real Estate Price Index and REINS transaction data to understand the price range at which properties are actually selling before building your strategy.

For Owners Continuing to Hold

If the property is being rented out, compare the current rental income with the net proceeds you would receive if you sold it in a calm and objective manner. In a rising interest rate environment, the cost of long-term holding may also increase. That is precisely why it is important to review your assets regularly and make decisions grounded in data.

For Those Considering a Purchase

It is premature to look only at the "listing price" shown on property search sites and conclude that a property is "too expensive." When you review actual transaction data, there are not a few cases where an offer 3% to 10% below the listing price is negotiated. The key is to understand the market correctly and identify how much room there is for negotiation.

INA's Perspective: Sound Decisions Through Transparent Market Information

At INA&Associates Co., Ltd., we place the highest value on transparent information grounded in data. In the real estate market, there is still a tendency to show only data that is convenient for the seller, but that approach cannot build long-term trust.

It is precisely when the gap between transaction prices and asking prices widens that the presence of a trusted partner becomes essential. For sellers and buyers alike, an environment in which calm decisions can be made based on accurate data is indispensable. We believe in sharing information transparently, including potential disadvantages, and working together with each client to consider the most appropriate options.

Summary

The transaction price per square meter for used condominiums in the Greater Tokyo area is JPY 869,900, while the inventory price per square meter is JPY 1,051,500, creating a gap of about JPY 180,000 per square meter
The growth rate of inventory prices (+31.5%) far exceeds that of transaction prices (+6.3%), showing that seller pricing is diverging from actual market conditions
Surging construction costs, higher interest rates, polarization between central Tokyo and the suburbs, uneven overseas capital inflows, and sellers' bullish stance are the underlying factors
Whether selling or buying, it is important to base decisions not on the "listing price" but on "transaction data"
Precisely because the gap is widening, the use of transparent and accurate market information is indispensable

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1. What impact does a large gap between transaction prices and asking prices have on the market?

A. When the gap is large, properties are less likely to sell within the period sellers had anticipated. Inventory remains on the market for longer, increasing the risk that substantial price reductions will ultimately become unavoidable. In addition, potential buyers may hold back, thinking prices may fall further, which could reduce overall market liquidity.

Q2. What is the difference between REINS transaction prices per square meter and Tokyo Kantei's price gap rate?

A. REINS transaction prices per square meter represent the average price per square meter across all properties that actually completed a sale. By contrast, Tokyo Kantei's price gap rate compares the listing price and transaction price of the same property to show how much of a discount was applied. Each reflects market conditions from a different angle.

Q3. If interest rates rise, will the gap widen even further?

A. That is highly possible. While higher interest rates lower buyers' purchasing capacity, sellers remain in an environment where they find it difficult to reduce prices because of rising construction costs, creating a structural factor that can widen the difference further. That said, if unsold inventory remains on the market for longer, sellers may begin to revise prices downward.

Q4. Where can I check transaction data?

A. You can search actual transaction prices free of charge through the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's "Real Estate Transaction Price Information Search" and "REINS Market Information." Area-by-area price trends are also published in Tokyo Kantei's market reports. We recommend using these public data sources to understand market conditions accurately.

Why Is the Gap Between Transaction Prices and Asking Prices Widening? Understanding Today's Real Estate Market Through Data

What Are the "Price Properties Sold For" and the "Price Properties Are Listed At"? Understanding the Gap Between Transaction Prices and Asking Prices

What Does the Widening Gap Look Like in the Data? Reading the Latest Market Data