In the November 2025 data for the Corporate Transaction Volume Index (trial operation), released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism on February 27, 2026, the national total came in at 264.4, marking a month-on-month decline of 11.8%. How should we interpret a result in which every category fell from the previous month? Rather than reacting emotionally to a single month of movement, we should assess it calmly alongside the medium- to long-term trend.
What Is the Corporate Transaction Volume Index? A Real Estate Transaction Indicator Published by the MLIT
The Corporate Transaction Volume Index is an indicator calculated from the volume of ownership transfer registrations for existing buildings acquired by corporations. It is published by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism on a trial basis and is intended to track trends in corporate real estate transactions through registration data. The benchmark sets the annual average for 2010 at 100, and seasonally adjusted figures are used.
This index draws attention because corporate real estate transactions function as a leading indicator that points to the broader market direction. Unlike home purchases by individuals, corporate transactions are carried out based on investment decisions and business strategy. That is precisely why understanding corporate activity provides an important clue for anticipating where the real estate market may be heading.
As the index remains in the trial stage, it is important to note that the calculation method and disclosure details may change in the future.
How Did the National Market Move in November 2025? Every Category Fell Month on Month
In November 2025, the Corporate Transaction Volume Index declined month on month across every category, both residential and non-residential. The key figures are as follows.
Total: 264.4, Down 11.8% Month on Month
The seasonally adjusted national total was 264.4, down 11.8% from 299.8 in October. Part of this decline reflects a rebound after October posted a strong 7.0% month-on-month increase. While the single-month swing is large, the level itself remains high at more than 2.6 times the 2010 benchmark.
Residential: Detached Houses Down 10.9%, Condominiums Down 5.5%
The residential total stood at 295.0, down 7.9% from the previous month. Breaking this down, detached houses came in at 339.6 (down 10.9%) and condominiums at 252.8 (down 5.5%), showing a steeper decline for detached houses. Even so, detached houses remain at nearly 3.4 times the 2010 level, indicating that corporate acquisitions of detached properties continue to be active over the medium to long term.
Non-Residential: Sharp 17.6% Month-on-Month Decline
Non-residential properties recorded 209.8, marking a sharp month-on-month decline of 17.6%. This suggests a temporary slowdown in transactions for business-use real estate such as office buildings and commercial facilities. However, non-residential figures tend to fluctuate widely from month to month, so it would be premature to conclude from a single month alone that the market has weakened.
How Are the Major Metro Areas Performing? The Nagoya Area Saw the Sharpest Drop
Looking at the data by metro area, the differences among regions are becoming increasingly clear.
Southern Kanto: Modest 5.5% Decline
The Southern Kanto total was 256.2, down 5.5% from the previous month, making the decline relatively limited compared with the national average. Tokyo stood at 250.7 (down 6.8%). The Tokyo real estate market continues to be supported by resilient demand, and corporate transactions there also show relative stability.
Nagoya Area: Sharp 26.4% Decline
The Nagoya area recorded 249.9, down 26.4% from the previous month, the largest decline among Japan's three major metropolitan areas. Aichi Prefecture alone showed a similar pattern at 246.8 (down 26.2%). In the Nagoya area, large corporate transactions tend to cluster in specific months, which makes rebound effects more likely in subsequent months. Rather than focusing only on the decline, we should note that the index still stands at roughly 2.5 times the 2010 level.
Keihanshin: Relatively Stable With a 7.2% Decline
The Keihanshin area came in at 277.6, down 7.2% from the previous month, making it the most stable among the three major metropolitan areas. Osaka Prefecture posted a somewhat larger decline at 264.3 (down 12.3%), but the Keihanshin area as a whole still shows resilience. Infrastructure development and redevelopment ahead of Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai are likely supporting corporate real estate transactions.
What Does the Annual Trend Tell Us About Corporate Transaction Volumes?
To avoid being misled by month-to-month fluctuations, it is essential to understand the annual trend. Looking back at the movement since 2019, it is clear that corporate transaction volumes have been on a medium- to long-term upward trajectory.
| Year | Total Index | Year on Year |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 198.7 | +0.7% |
| 2020 | 181.6 | Down 8.6% (COVID-19 impact) |
| 2021 | 208.4 | +14.8% |
| 2022 | 230.2 | +10.5% |
| 2023 | 244.6 | +6.3% |
| 2024 | 261.7 | +7.0% |
Although 2020 fell 8.6% amid the pandemic, 2021 achieved a V-shaped recovery of 14.8%. The index has continued to rise steadily each year since then, reaching 261.7 in 2024, or about 2.6 times the 2010 level.
Even when we look at the monthly path for 2025, the index generally maintained an upward trend through the year, moving from 277.3 in January to 283.7 in April, 285.5 in July, and 299.8 in October. It is reasonable to view November's 264.4 as a temporary adjustment within that broader trend. This is also consistent with developments across the investment real estate market as a whole, and it does not suggest that corporate appetite for real estate investment is structurally weakening.
What Do Changes in Corporate Transaction Volumes Mean for Property Owners?
Corporate Activity Is a Leading Indicator for the Market as a Whole
Compared with individuals, corporations tend to be more sensitive to interest-rate movements, economic conditions, and policy changes. If corporate transaction volumes begin to decline, that shift may filter through to individual transactions several months later. That is why it is important to monitor this index regularly and identify the market direction at an early stage.
That said, the November data appears largely to reflect a rebound after the sharp rise in the previous month and does not indicate a turning point in the trend. What matters is whether declines continue over several months.
Implications for Disposition and Rent Strategy
Active corporate transactions influence not only sales and purchases of office buildings and commercial facilities, but also the surrounding leasing market. In areas where corporations are actively acquiring properties, stronger tenant demand and rising rents can be expected.
For owners considering a sale, today's environment of sustained high corporate transaction volumes means there are many potential buyers in the market. Rather, the key is to identify the right timing for a sale before corporate transaction volumes move into a more pronounced decline.
My View: Calm Judgment Based on Data
The Corporate Transaction Volume Index for November 2025 showed month-on-month declines across every category. If one were to look only at the headline, it might be tempting to conclude that the market has lost momentum. However, the annual trend still places the index at more than 2.6 times the 2010 level, and corporate investment appetite toward the real estate market remains robust.
The greatest risk in real estate management is making poor decisions by overreacting to short-term data. 'This month fell sharply, so we should rush to sell.' 'Next month may also decline, so we should hold back on buying.' Such emotional decisions rarely lead to the best choice when viewed over the long term.
What I value is a medium- to long-term perspective built not on a single month's data, but on multiple indicators viewed together. By layering the Corporate Transaction Volume Index with other data such as the real estate price index, officially announced land prices, and interest-rate trends, we can understand the market with greater depth and accuracy.
At INA&Associates, we are committed to interpreting public data carefully and providing information that is genuinely useful to property owners. Especially when market conditions are changing, calm judgment grounded in data is essential.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q1. Does the Corporate Transaction Volume Index affect ordinary real estate transactions as well?
The Corporate Transaction Volume Index covers corporate acquisitions of existing buildings, but corporate activity functions as a leading indicator for the broader market. Because increases or decreases in corporate transactions tend to influence individual transaction trends several months later, this is also an important indicator for private owners and investors.
Q2. Was the 11.8% month-on-month decline in November 2025 unusually severe?
The Corporate Transaction Volume Index tends to show large month-to-month swings. Because October posted a strong 7.0% increase from the previous month, part of November's decline reflects that rebound, and there is no need to judge the overall market as deteriorating based on one negative month alone. On an annual trend basis, the index still remains at a high level of more than 2.6 times the 2010 benchmark.
Q3. Where can I check this index?
It is published on the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism website. You can search for 'Corporate Transaction Volume Index' or access it from the ministry's 'Real Estate Transaction Volume Index' page. Because it is currently in the trial stage, the publication method may change in the future.
Q4. Should we be concerned about the Nagoya area's 26.4% decline?
Large corporate transactions in the Nagoya area tend to concentrate in specific months, so month-to-month fluctuations are often sizable. The index itself remains at 249.9, or about 2.5 times the 2010 level, and this should not be viewed as evidence of structural market deterioration. It is important to assess the situation over multiple months.
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