According to the November 2025 data from the "Existing Home Sales Index (Trial)," released by Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) on February 27, 2026, the nationwide composite index stood at 125.8—a 9.1% decline from the previous month. With both detached houses and condominiums posting month-over-month decreases across all categories, how should we interpret these figures? Rather than reacting to a single month's fluctuation, let's take a measured look at the data alongside medium- to long-term trends.
What Is the Existing Home Sales Index? A Secondary Housing Market Metric from MLIT
The Existing Home Sales Index is calculated based on the volume of ownership transfer registrations for pre-owned homes acquired by individuals. Published by MLIT as a trial program, the index uses registration data to track trends in secondary housing transactions by individual buyers.
The baseline is set at 100, representing the annual average for 2010, with seasonally adjusted values used throughout. Because the index covers only individual acquisitions of existing (pre-owned) homes, it captures a different segment of the market than corporate transaction volume indices.
The index is noteworthy because it provides a quantitative measure of activity in the secondary housing market. In Japan—where the housing market has long been characterized as favoring new construction—the volume of existing home transactions serves as an important indicator of market maturity and the health of the investment environment.
It should be noted that because the program is still in its trial phase, the methodology and scope of published data may change in the future. This is worth keeping in mind when interpreting the figures.
Nationwide Trends for November 2025: All Categories Post Month-over-Month Declines
In November 2025, the Existing Home Sales Index fell on a month-over-month basis across every category, regardless of property type. Here is a summary of the key data.
Composite Index: 125.8, Down 9.1% Month over Month
The seasonally adjusted nationwide composite index came in at 125.8, dropping 9.1% from October's 138.4. Given that October had posted a strong 5.4% month-over-month gain, some of the November decline can be attributed to a correction from that surge. That said, a reading of 125.8 still sits roughly 25% above the 2010 baseline, suggesting this is best viewed as a temporary pullback within a broader upward trend.
Detached Houses: 120.2, Down 10.1%
Detached houses recorded an index of 120.2, a 10.1% month-over-month decline. The drop was somewhat steeper than for condominiums, pointing to a possible temporary pause in demand for detached homes. However, maintaining a reading above 120 means transaction volumes remain more than 20% above the 2010 baseline.
Condominiums: 133.2, Down 5.5%
The condominium (sectional ownership) index came in at 133.2, a more modest 5.5% month-over-month decline compared to detached houses. Excluding units under 30 square meters, the condominium index stood at 106.9 (down 7.5%). Condominiums' higher liquidity likely helped sustain a baseline level of transactions, limiting the extent of the decline.
Regional Breakdown: Tokyo Maintains Its Strong Position
A look at the data by metropolitan area reveals clear regional differences.
Southern Kanto: A Resilient 5.1% Decline
The Southern Kanto composite index was 131.5, down just 5.1% month over month—well below the national average decline. Tokyo stood out at 147.9 (down 4.8%), the highest index reading among all prefectures in the three major metropolitan areas. The Tokyo real estate market continues to be underpinned by solid demand, with the capital's dominance in individual secondary home acquisitions clearly evident.
Nagoya Metro Area: A Sharp 18.2% Drop
The Nagoya metropolitan area recorded 111.1, an 18.2% month-over-month decline—the steepest among the three major metro areas. Aichi Prefecture alone posted 108.3 (down 19.5%), following a similar pattern and falling well below the national average. The Nagoya area tends to exhibit relatively large month-to-month swings, and this decline largely represents a correction from October's elevated levels. An index above 100 still indicates transaction volumes exceeding the 2010 baseline.
Keihanshin (Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto): Down 8.2%, Tracking the National Average
The Keihanshin area came in at 120.3, an 8.2% month-over-month decline roughly in line with the national average. Osaka Prefecture posted 119.6 (down 9.4%), nearly the same level. The flow of people driven by Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai and ongoing urban redevelopment projects are thought to be continuing to support individual secondary home acquisitions in the region.
Annual Trends in Existing Home Sales Volume
To avoid being misled by single-month fluctuations, it is essential to understand longer-term trends. A review of data from 2019 onward confirms that existing home sales volume has been on a medium- to long-term upward trajectory.
| Year | Composite Index | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 110.7 | — |
| 2020 | 107.2 | -3.2% (COVID impact) |
| 2021 | 111.5 | +4.0% |
| 2022 | 112.1 | +0.5% |
| 2023 | 116.9 | +4.3% |
| 2024 | 125.0 | +6.9% |
While 2020 saw a 3.2% decline due to the pandemic, the market rebounded with a 4.0% gain in 2021. The steady upward trend continued thereafter, with 2024 reaching 125.0—a record high.
Looking at monthly data for 2025, the index peaked at 132.0 in January and has generally fluctuated within a range of 120 to 132 since then. This aligns with the broader strength of the investment real estate market, confirming that demand for existing homes is structurally increasing.
| Month | Index | Month-over-Month Change |
|---|---|---|
| January | 132.0 | +4.2% |
| February | 126.5 | -4.2% |
| March | 125.8 | -0.5% |
| April | 130.3 | +3.6% |
| May | 128.5 | -1.4% |
| June | 130.0 | +1.2% |
| July | 128.2 | -1.4% |
| August | 126.5 | -1.3% |
| September | 131.3 | +3.8% |
| October | 138.4 | +5.4% |
| November | 125.8 | -9.1% |
October's 138.4 was the year's peak, and November's 125.8 falls within the range of a natural correction. The January-to-November average of approximately 128.5 is running above the 2024 full-year figure of 125.0.
What Secondary Housing Market Trends Mean for Property Owners
Greater Secondary Market Activity Means More Selling Opportunities
The sustained rise in the Existing Home Sales Index signals a growing pool of buyers in the secondary housing market. A 25%-plus increase in transaction volume compared to 2010 is evidence that the shift in buyer attitudes—an increasing willingness to purchase pre-owned homes—has become well established.
For owners considering selling their properties, the current environment, with its relatively large buyer pool, represents a favorable window. When it comes to timing a property sale, periods when the Existing Home Sales Index is at elevated levels indicate high liquidity and more favorable conditions for achieving fair-market pricing.
At the same time, it is important to look beyond aggregate demand and pay attention to regional variations. With Tokyo at 147.9 versus the Nagoya area at 111.1, the gap is substantial, and the degree of market intensity differs significantly by location.
Implications for Rental Property Management
As secondary housing transactions become more active, some tenants may shift to homeownership, potentially causing a temporary dip in rental demand. However, even as the Existing Home Sales Index maintains high levels, a significant segment of the population remains unable to make the leap to purchasing and continues to stay in the rental market.
The key takeaway for rental property owners is that in areas with strong purchase demand, the pool of people priced out of or outcompeted in the buying market actually reinforces rental market stability. In high-demand areas like Tokyo and the broader Southern Kanto region, rental demand is likely to remain resilient.
My Perspective — Taking a Long-Term View of Secondary Housing Market Growth
The November 2025 Existing Home Sales Index posted month-over-month declines across all categories. Looking at the numbers alone, it might be easy to conclude that "the market is cooling." However, when viewed against the annual trend, the index remains approximately 25% above the 2010 baseline, and the structural expansion of secondary housing transactions continues steadily.
Japan's secondary housing market still has significant room for growth compared to Western countries. The fact that MLIT is publishing this index even in a trial capacity reflects growing policy-level recognition of the secondary housing market's importance.
What I value most when analyzing the real estate market is the habit of reading single-month data as part of a trend line, not as an isolated point. When placed in context as a correction from October's high, the 9.1% November decline is not a cause for undue pessimism. Instead, the more meaningful signal is that the January-to-November 2025 average is running above the 2024 full-year figure.
One of the most common mistakes in real estate management is allowing short-term fluctuations to obscure the long-term direction. Accurately understanding the structural expansion of the secondary housing market and factoring it into decisions about selling, buying, or holding properties is what drives better medium- to long-term performance. At INA&Associates, we remain committed to supporting property owners' decision-making through careful analysis of public data.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q1. What is the difference between the Existing Home Sales Index and the Real Estate Price Index?
The Existing Home Sales Index tracks trends in "transaction volume (number of deals)" in index form. The Real Estate Price Index, on the other hand, measures changes in "transaction prices." By examining both together, you can conduct multidimensional analysis—for example, determining whether transaction volumes are rising while prices remain stable, or how volumes are moving amid price increases.
Q2. Is a 9.1% month-over-month decline significant?
Monthly Existing Home Sales Index figures tend to be influenced by seasonal factors, year-end/New Year holidays, and extended weekends, resulting in relatively large month-to-month swings. Given that October posted a strong 5.4% month-over-month gain, the November decline can be explained as a correction. For medium- to long-term trend analysis, the fact that the annual average is running above 2024 levels is more significant.
Q3. Where can I access the Existing Home Sales Index?
The index is published on the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) website. Since it is still in its trial phase, the publication method and methodology may change in the future. We recommend checking the MLIT's Existing Home Sales Index page periodically for updates.
Q4. Why is Tokyo's index higher than other regions?
Tokyo is Japan's largest population center, sustaining robust transaction activity driven by both housing demand and investment demand. Resistance to purchasing pre-owned homes has diminished, and active trading at appropriate price points continues even amid high price levels. Additionally, Tokyo's secondary condominium market benefits from high liquidity, with abundant options for both buyers and sellers—another factor pushing the index higher.
Related Reading
Citations and References
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, "Existing Home Sales Index (Trial), November 2025" (Released February 27, 2026)
