The national total/seasonally adjusted value of the existing home sales volume index for January 2026 was 137.2, an increase of 3.7% from the previous month. The transaction volume in the used housing market appears strong at first glance, but there is a difference between detached houses, condominiums, and condominiums excluding those less than 30 square meters.
Points of this article
- The existing home sales volume index for January 2026 was 137.2 nationwide, an increase of 3.7% from the previous month.
- Detached houses increased by 4.6%, and condominiums increased by 2.2%, with detached houses being the main driver of growth.
- Condominiums excluding units of less than 30 m2 increased by only 0.2%, leaving a gap with the index that includes small residential units.
- An increase in sales volume does not mean a rise in prices, so it must be read in conjunction with price indexes and stock availability.
What did the existing home sales volume index show in January 2026?
The existing home sales volume index for January 2026 shows that the transaction volume of existing homes has recovered from the previous month. According to materials published by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, the seasonally adjusted value for the total number of detached houses and condominiums nationwide was 137.2, an increase of 3.7% from the previous month.
This index is an index of the sales volume of existing homes acquired by individuals based on the registration of ownership transfers due to building sales. Since the 2010 average is set as 100, the number 137.2 means a level significantly higher than the 2010 average.
However, this is an indicator of "sales volume" rather than "price". If you want to check the strength of prices, you need to look at the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's real estate price index, the unit closing price by region, and the unit inventory price. Reading sales volume and price separately is the first step in determining market conditions.
As mentioned in the Basic explanation of the existing home sales volume index, this index is a tool for looking at the liquidity of the existing home market. Is the quantity sold increasing, or is it becoming harder to sell? Use this to quickly grasp the changes.
Why not just use the 3.7% increase as a bullish factor?
It is premature to conclude that the existing housing market as a whole is strong just based on the 3.7% increase. Looking at the breakdown of the index, it looks quite different depending on whether it includes apartments less than 30 square meters.
According to materials from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, the total seasonally adjusted value excluding spaces under 30m2 was 124.6, an increase of 2.8% from the previous month. Compared to the total of 137.2, an increase of 3.7% from the previous month, the growth is somewhat modest. In other words, market movements including small condominiums may be pushing up the overall numbers.
Condominiums less than 30 square meters are not only used for personal residence, but may also be acquired for investment purposes or as second homes. Of course, it is not possible to determine the purpose of the purchaser based on the index alone. However, by looking at the difference between the index that includes and excludes areas less than 30m2, it is possible to check whether there are movements other than actual demand mixed in.
When I talk to owners about the market, I first list the ``overall numbers'' and the ``numbers after exclusions.'' This is because even though the increase may be the same on the table, investment decisions will change if the quality of the demand involved is different. Numbers are not the answer. This is an entry point for asking questions.
What is the difference between a detached house and a condominium?
January 2026 was the month when the growth in single-family homes was greater than that in condominiums. The seasonally adjusted value for detached houses is 133.5, an increase of 4.6% from the previous month, and for condominiums is 142.2, an increase of 2.2% from the previous month.
The index level for condominiums is high at 142.2, well above the 2010 average. On the other hand, the growth from the previous month was stronger for detached houses. Rather than saying that only used condominiums are driving the market, it would be natural to read this as a month in which there was a return to transaction volume on the detached house side as well.
However, excluding condominiums of less than 30㎡, the number was 115.5, an increase of only 0.2% from the previous month. Condominium transactions excluding small residential units are not as strong as the overall condominium index. This difference is something that cannot be overlooked when evaluating condominiums for families or for real demand.
Investors considering expensive used condominiums should look not only at the sales volume index, but also at the price index and trends in sales inventory. As explained in Real Estate Price Index November 2025 Explanation, price movements and transaction volume movements do not necessarily move in the same direction.
How to read the existing housing market based on regional differences?
By region, sales increased significantly in the Hokkaido region by 15.1% compared to the previous month, and in the Chugoku region by 10.3%. The Kyushu/Okinawa region also showed an increase of 3.8%, which is close to the national average.
On the other hand, the Nagoya area decreased by 2.7% from the previous month. Aichi Prefecture also saw a 3.0% decrease, which is a different trend from the nationwide increase. Even in months when the national average increases, supply and demand in each region is not the same. When making investment decisions, you need to look not just at national headlines, but also at indicators close to your own area.
Tokyo had a total of 155.8, an increase of 3.4% from the previous month, and Osaka Prefecture had a total of 153.4, an increase of 2.0% from the previous month. Although the index level remains high in large cities, the growth rate varies by region. In particular, Osaka Prefecture's condominium index is high at 188.0, exceeding Tokyo's 165.6.
The important thing here is not to simplify it by saying, ``The higher the index, the better to buy now.'' While regions with high indexes have liquidity, prices tend to remain high, and the yield after acquisition may be thin. That's why you need to put rent, management fees, repair costs, and interest rates in the same table before making a decision.
What should owners and investors look for?
When looking at the existing home sales volume index, owners and investors should separately check whether it is an easy market to buy or sell and whether it is related to the exit of their property. Even if the national index rises, if it does not match the area and floor plan of the properties you own, it will not directly lead to your exit strategy.
For example, if you are an investor with a studio apartment in the city center that is less than 30 square meters, look at the difference between the condominium index that includes apartments that are less than 30 square meters and the index after excluding them. If you own a house in the suburbs, prioritize the single-family home index and the regional index. Just looking at numbers that are close to the type of property you own will improve the accuracy of your judgment.
Another thing to check is the cost of ownership. Even if the volume of transactions increases and it becomes easier to see an exit, if interest rates, repair costs, and management costs rise, income and expenditures will be squeezed. In conjunction with the reality that the holding costs of real estate investments are rapidly increasing, it is important to check not only the timing of selling but also the ability to hold onto the property.
At INA, we place emphasis on looking at the numbers honestly, including the disadvantages, rather than just reading the numbers. When market conditions are good, you should consider the exit price, the income and expenditure of your holdings, and the quality of the next asset you buy. Protecting your assets over the long term requires validation, not momentum.
How should the existing home sales volume index be used in practice?
The existing home sales volume index is not a stand-alone indicator for determining buying and selling decisions. In practice, value can be gained by using it in combination with price indexes, examples of successful deals, sales inventory, rent levels, and repair cost forecasts.
If you are considering a short-term sale, look at the rise in the index as a sign that buyers may be on the move. However, if you set your selling price too aggressively, it will take time to close even in a liquid market. The more sales volume increases, the more important it is to set realistic prices.
When assuming long-term holding, look at the depth of the market rather than the height of the index. Is it an area where there are a certain number of buyers? Are there similar types of properties in circulation? Are there properties that can be compared at the time of exit? This confirmation will protect your potential for future sales.
The existing home sales volume index for January 2026 was up 3.7% from the previous month nationwide, a number that shows a sense of recovery. However, when we separate detached houses, condominiums, small dwelling units, and regional differences, the same "increase" has different meanings. What owners and investors need is not to believe the numbers in their entirety, but to be able to break them down and read them as close to their own assets as possible.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q1. What is the Existing Home Sales Volume Index?
A. The existing home sales volume index is a statistic published by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism that indexes the sales volume of existing homes based on registered data. The average for 2010 is set as 100, and it shows the movement in the transaction volume of existing homes acquired by individuals.
Q2. Is the existing home sales volume index strong in January 2026?
A. The transaction volume is stronger than last month, as the nationwide total increased by 3.7% from the previous month. However, the appearance changes depending on whether apartments less than 30 m2 are included, so it is necessary to check the breakdown.
Q3. If the sales volume index increases, will the price also increase?
A. An increase in the sales volume index does not directly mean an increase in prices. To see the price, you need to check the real estate price index, unit price, sales inventory, and demand and supply by area.
Q4. How should owners use this index?
A. It is realistic to look at the index that is close to the type and area of the property you own and use it as a reference when deciding on your exit strategy and when to sell. Rather than making judgments based only on the national average, we break it down by house, condominium, and region.
Also read
Citations/References
- Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism "Existing Housing Sales Volume Index Announcement for January 2026 (Trial Operation)"
- Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism "Existing Housing Sales Volume Index" page
- Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism "Real Estate Price Index" publication page
