On February 27, 2026, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) released the Real Estate Price Index (Residential) for November 2025. Alongside this, the Commercial Real Estate Price Index for Q3 2025 (July–September) was also published. The residential composite index came in at 147.3, marking a +0.7% month-over-month increase. Condominiums (sectional ownership) stood at 223.5—more than double the 2010 baseline—reaffirming the structural strength behind the ongoing price appreciation.
This article breaks down the latest Real Estate Price Index across residential and commercial categories, examining trends by metropolitan area and region, and offering practical perspectives on how to leverage this data for investment and business decisions.
What Is the Real Estate Price Index? MLIT's Key Indicator for Price Trends
The Real Estate Price Index is a statistical indicator published monthly by MLIT based on actual real estate transaction price data. It uses the 2010 average as a baseline of 100, providing a time-series visualization of real estate price movements.
For residential properties, the index is published monthly across four categories: "Residential Composite," "Residential Land," "Detached Houses," and "Condominiums (Sectional Ownership)." Commercial real estate data is released quarterly, covering categories such as "Retail," "Office," "Warehouse," "Factory," and "Apartment Buildings (Whole Building)."
The index incorporates seasonal adjustment, enabling users to identify price trends that reflect actual market conditions without seasonal distortion. Data is published across multiple geographic levels—nationwide, by metropolitan area, by prefecture, and by regional bloc—making it a versatile tool for analysis ranging from macro trends to individual market assessments.
As discussed in Investment Real Estate Market Outlook for 2025, the price index serves as essential foundational data for understanding market cycles.
November 2025 Residential Price Index | Composite at 147.3, Uptrend Continues
Residential Composite: 147.3, Up +0.7% Month-over-Month
The residential composite index (nationwide, seasonally adjusted) for November 2025 was 147.3, a +0.7% increase from the previous month. Compared to the same month last year (November 2024: 140.3), this represents a +5.0% year-over-year gain, confirming the continuation of a sustained upward trend throughout the year.
The January–November 2025 average stands at 144.5, approximately +4.3% higher than the 2024 full-year average of 138.6. This indicates that price increases are not a one-off monthly fluctuation but have become an entrenched trend year after year.
Condominiums: 223.5—More Than Double the 2010 Baseline
The condominium (sectional ownership) index reached 223.5, up +0.8% from the previous month. Compared to the same month last year (207.0), this represents a +8.0% year-over-year increase, significantly outpacing the residential composite's growth rate.
Against the 2010 baseline, current prices have reached 2.24 times the reference level, illustrating the sheer magnitude of cumulative long-term appreciation. Even compared to 2019 (147.8), prices are approximately 51% higher, demonstrating that the accelerated growth phase triggered during the pandemic continues unabated.
The 2025 year-to-date average (January–November) is 217.4, roughly 7% above the 2024 full-year average of 202.7. Condominium price growth is the most pronounced of all categories, supported by supply constraints and persistent demand.
Detached Houses and Residential Land: Steady Upward Trajectory
Detached houses came in at 120.8 (+0.2% month-over-month), while residential land registered 120.3 (+2.6% month-over-month). The relatively strong month-over-month gain for residential land likely reflects transaction activity in urban areas where land prices continue to rise. While neither category shows the sharp escalation seen in condominiums, both maintain a long-term upward trend.
Regional Residential Price Trends | Tokyo at 187.6 Stands Out
Southern Kanto: Solid Performance at 160.9
The residential composite index for the Southern Kanto region (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba) was 160.9, up +2.1% month-over-month. This exceeds the national average (147.3) by more than 13 points, highlighting the elevated price levels in the Greater Tokyo area.
Among prefectures, Tokyo stands out at 187.6 (+5.8% month-over-month). While a 5.8% single-month surge may partially reflect specific high-value transactions influencing the index, it underscores Tokyo's distinct market dynamics compared to the rest of the country. The supply-demand dynamics analyzed in Tokyo Real Estate Market Forecast for 2025 are clearly reflected in the numbers.
For condominium (sectional ownership) indices by prefecture, Tokyo reached 237.0 (+1.9% month-over-month) and Osaka 222.3 (+1.9% month-over-month). These represent 2.37x and 2.22x the 2010 baseline respectively, confirming that condominium prices in Japan's major cities are at historic highs.
Nagoya and Keihanshin: Varying Degrees of Growth
The Nagoya metropolitan area's residential composite stood at 121.2 (+0.2% month-over-month), below the national average. However, Aichi Prefecture alone registered 128.1 (+2.3% month-over-month), showing notable regional variation within the area.
The Keihanshin region (Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe) was flat at 154.6 (±0.0% month-over-month). Osaka Prefecture's individual index, however, rose to 159.4 (+2.0% month-over-month), suggesting that Osaka is the primary driver of growth within the Keihanshin region.
Kyushu and Okinawa: A Striking +10.1% Surge
Among regional blocs, the Kyushu-Okinawa region demands attention, with the residential composite jumping to 162.3—a +10.1% month-over-month increase. While a double-digit monthly gain may partly reflect concentrated transactions or large-scale deals in specific areas, it clearly signals growing interest in the region's real estate market.
Hokkaido maintained a level of 164.0 (+0.9% month-over-month), comparable to the Southern Kanto region. Demand driven primarily by affluent foreign buyers continues to be reflected in Hokkaido's price index.
Commercial Real Estate Price Index | Q3 2025 Trends
The Commercial Real Estate Price Index is published quarterly; the latest release covers Q3 2025 (July–September). Note that this covers a different time period than the monthly residential index (November).
Commercial Real Estate Composite: 147.2, Up +1.1% Quarter-over-Quarter
The commercial real estate composite (nationwide, seasonally adjusted) came in at 147.2, a +1.1% increase from the previous quarter. Like the residential market, commercial real estate continues on a gradual upward trajectory.
By metropolitan area, the three major metropolitan areas were flat at 156.0 (±0.0% quarter-over-quarter), while areas outside the three major metros rose to 128.2 (+2.5% quarter-over-quarter), with regional markets showing notable growth. The plateau in major metro prices, combined with growth in regional areas, suggests that investment capital may be flowing toward relatively more affordable regional markets.
By Category: Retail and Warehouses Rise, Offices Adjust
A clear divergence emerged across commercial property categories.
Warehouses recorded a significant +12.1% quarter-over-quarter increase to 138.5, reflecting continued strong investment demand driven by expanding e-commerce and logistics facility needs. Retail rose to 169.5 (+3.4% quarter-over-quarter), likely buoyed by recovering inbound tourism demand and increased consumer activity.
In contrast, offices dropped sharply to 168.5 (−5.9% quarter-over-quarter). The entrenchment of remote work appears to be exerting downward pressure on office demand and prices. Factories saw a modest decline to 124.3 (−1.9% quarter-over-quarter).
Apartment buildings (whole building) remained solid at 173.7 (+0.7% quarter-over-quarter), with demand for income-generating properties continuing to support prices, mirroring trends in the sectional condominium market.
Annual Trends in Real Estate Prices
Looking at the annual trajectory of the residential composite (seasonally adjusted yearly averages), the structural shift in pricing becomes clear.
| Year | Residential Composite | Condominiums |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 113.9 | 147.8 |
| 2020 | 113.9 | 153.2 |
| 2021 | 120.7 | 164.2 |
| 2022 | 130.9 | 181.2 |
| 2023 | 134.8 | 190.8 |
| 2024 | 138.6 | 202.7 |
| 2025 (Jan–Nov avg.) | 144.5 | 217.4 |
The residential composite, which remained flat between 2019 and 2020, entered a clear upward trajectory from 2021 onward. This resulted from the convergence of multiple factors: shifting housing demand during the pandemic, the continuation of an ultra-low interest rate environment, and ongoing urban population concentration.
The pace of condominium price growth has been even more striking, with approximately 47% appreciation from 2019 to 2025. Compared to the residential composite's roughly 27% gain over the same period, this highlights how the unique supply-demand dynamics of the condominium market have driven prices upward.
As noted in How to Identify the Right Time to Sell in Tokyo's 23 Wards Real Estate Investment, understanding these long-term trends is essential when making decisions about the timing of property sales.
What Rising Prices Mean for Property Owners
Asset Appreciation and Selling Decisions
The sustained rise in the Real Estate Price Index signifies growing asset values for property owners. For condominiums in particular, many owners may be sitting on substantial unrealized gains depending on when they acquired their properties—information that can prove valuable when considering a sale.
However, the index represents average market-wide movements. Individual property values vary based on numerous factors including location, building age, maintenance condition, and surrounding environment. A rising index does not automatically translate to a proportional increase in any specific property's value, making individual appraisals and market research essential.
Leveraging Data for Rental Strategies
Rising price indices can influence not only property values but also rental rates. As newly supplied properties command higher rents, opportunities may emerge for existing property owners to revise their rental pricing.
When reviewing rental strategies, it is effective to analyze the price index in conjunction with vacancy rates and rental indices (published separately). Understanding market price trends and objectively assessing your property's position within the market are key to improving profitability.
My Perspective — Using the Price Index to Inform Business Decisions
Looking at this data, one thing stands out once again. The +8.0% year-over-year increase in condominium prices significantly outpaces both the inflation rate and wage growth. The narrative that "rising real estate prices are widening the wealth gap" is becoming increasingly clear in the numbers.
In the commercial sector, the contrast between warehouses at +12.1% and offices at −5.9% was particularly striking. Structural shifts in the economy are directly reflected in real estate prices, and a blanket view that "commercial real estate is strong" no longer captures reality. We are in a period where selecting the right property category for investment matters more than ever.
What I find especially noteworthy is the +2.5% growth in commercial real estate outside the three major metropolitan areas. Price levels in regional markets remain at roughly 80% of major metro levels (128.2 vs. 156.0), representing relative value. There may be significantly more opportunity to acquire quality assets in regional markets compared to urban centers.
The Real Estate Price Index is not merely a snapshot of the current market—it also provides material for anticipating developments years ahead. I believe that building a habit of consistently tracking monthly and quarterly data to identify early signs of change ultimately leads to more precise business and investment decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q1. When is the Real Estate Price Index published?
The residential Real Estate Price Index is published monthly, with data released approximately three months after the reference period. The November 2025 data covered here was published on February 27, 2026. The Commercial Real Estate Price Index is released quarterly; the latest publication covers Q3 2025 (July–September).
Q2. Why is the condominium price index so high?
Several factors have converged to drive condominium prices upward. Key drivers include strong demand from urban population concentration, rising construction costs that increase supply-side expenses, sustained investment demand fueled by the low interest rate environment, and increased acquisitions by foreign investors. With upward pressure on prices from both the supply and demand sides, elevated levels have persisted.
Q3. Why do price trends differ by region?
Real estate prices are heavily influenced by regional demographics, economic activity, development plans, and transportation accessibility. Major cities such as Tokyo and Osaka maintain high price levels due to concentrated demand, while regional areas may experience price movements driven by area-specific factors such as tourism demand and migration incentive programs. The +10.1% surge in Kyushu-Okinawa is one such region-specific development that should be understood in its local context.
Q4. How can the Real Estate Price Index be used for investment decisions?
The price index serves as a reference indicator for understanding overall market trends. During sustained upward phases, asset appreciation can be expected; however, when signs of overheating emerge, the risk of price corrections should also be factored in. Comparing trends across categories and regions can help with selecting investment targets and evaluating optimal timing for sales. That said, individual property decisions require dedicated market research beyond what the index alone can provide.
References
