The Greater Tokyo used condominium market (Tokyo, Saitama, Chiba, and Kanagawa prefectures) is reaching a major turning point in March 2025. According to the latest data released by the East Japan Real Estate Information Network (REINZ), the number of completed transactions has far exceeded the same month of the previous year, and market momentum is unmistakable. Meanwhile, price trends differ between areas, with divergent movements emerging between central Tokyo and the suburbs. This article clearly presents the regional trends in completed transactions, changes in transaction prices and inventory and their underlying factors, analysis of key areas centered on the three core wards, and a comparison of area-specific characteristics.
How Did Completed Transactions Trend by Region in March 2025?
In conclusion, a substantial increase of 4,991 transactions across the Greater Tokyo area (+31.0% year-on-year) was recorded, surpassing the previous year across all areas.
The seasonal factor of the pre-new-fiscal-year demand period also served as a tailwind, and month-on-month growth from February to March was also notable. Looking at year-on-year increases in completed transactions by region, all areas in Greater Tokyo recorded large increases.
- Tokyo (total across all areas) saw approximately 2,661 transactions, up approximately +29% year-on-year. In particular, the 23 wards of Tokyo saw 2,217 transactions (+28.4%), marking three consecutive months of exceeding the previous year, while the Tama region also saw a substantial increase of 444 transactions (+30.6%) for five consecutive months of growth.
- Saitama Prefecture saw 573 transactions (+30.2%), a substantial increase for six consecutive months.
- Chiba Prefecture saw 560 transactions (+28.2%), exceeding the previous year for 17 consecutive months.
- Kanagawa Prefecture as a whole saw approximately 1,197 transactions (approximately +37% increase). In particular, areas outside Yokohama and Kawasaki (Shonan area, central Kanagawa, etc.) showed a dramatic growth of 354 transactions (+51.3%).
The Greater Tokyo used condominium market, which temporarily slowed around last autumn, has carried over from November 2024 and transaction volumes have surged further entering this year. This indicates that purchasing demand is growing broadly across a wide area including not just central Tokyo but also the suburbs.
How Are Transaction Prices and Inventory Changing, and What Are the Underlying Factors?
In conclusion, while the transaction price per square meter continues a historically high upward trend of positive year-on-year growth for 59 consecutive months, inventory has decreased for 11 consecutive months and supply-demand conditions are tight.
Latest Price and Inventory Trends
The average transaction price per unit for Greater Tokyo used condominiums was approximately 49.45 million yen as of March 2025, up +2.6% year-on-year (5 consecutive months). The average transaction price per square meter was also 790,100 yen/m², up +4.1% year-on-year, continuing a record-breaking upward trend of exceeding the same month of the previous year for 59 consecutive months since May 2020.
On the other hand, new listings were 16,844, down -0.01% year-on-year (13 consecutive months of negative year-on-year growth), and inventory was 43,941, down -5.2% from the previous year (11 consecutive months of negatives), with supply of properties for sale continuing to thin out.
The new listing price per square meter surged to an average of 902,100 yen/m², recording a dramatic year-on-year increase of +22.2%. The inventory price per square meter also rose +17.7% year-on-year to 847,500 yen/m². The situation is one in which the pricing of properties being put on the market is surging sharply, and this is also being reflected in the prices of properties remaining as inventory.
Background: Interest Rate Environment and New Housing Supply Trends
Behind the price increases and inventory decline, the last-minute demand before interest rate hikes, the decrease in new condominium supply (the number of new condominium units sold in Greater Tokyo in 2024 was 23,003 units, the lowest since the survey began), and the expansion of foreign investor participation due to yen depreciation are acting in combination. It can be said that structural supply-demand tightening is largely supporting the current market.
Why Is the Used Condominium Market in the Three Core Wards on a Uniquely High Trajectory?
In conclusion, central areas centered on Chiyoda, Chuo, and Minato wards are showing price increases in a completely different dimension from other areas, driven by demand from wealthy individuals domestically and internationally and an extreme shortage of supply.
The transaction price per square meter in Tokyo's 23 wards was 1,217,800 yen/m² (+11.2% year-on-year), maintaining a double-digit appreciation rate and 59 consecutive months of positive year-on-year growth. Meanwhile, in other areas (Saitama, Chiba, Kanagawa), some regions are turning negative, so it appears that only central Tokyo is on a uniquely high trajectory.
In central areas, transactions involving properties above 100 million yen have become routine, and in addition to residential demand, the trend of purchasing real estate as part of an asset portfolio is strong, with cases of aggressive pricing aimed at capitalizing on price appreciation expectations being prominent. While the entire Greater Tokyo area may appear to be overheated, it is important to note that this is largely the impact of a limited area—central Tokyo.
What Are the Differences in Characteristics Between the Northern, Southern, Tama, Sobu, Kawasaki, and Shonan Areas?
In conclusion, the market characteristics of each area differ significantly, and a bifurcation is progressing where the closer to the city center, the higher the price, but in suburban areas, price adjustments are progressing even as transactions are active.
- Northern Area (Saitama Prefecture): The average transaction price per square meter was 420,900 yen/m² (year-on-year -4.8%), shifting to a slight correction, but completed transactions increased by +30.2%—a situation where the calming of prices actually boosted transactions.
- Eastern Area (Chiba Prefecture / Sobu Line corridor): The average transaction price per square meter was 372,600 yen/m² (year-on-year -7.5%), turning downward, but completed transactions increased +28.2% for 17 consecutive months of exceeding the previous year.
- Western Area (Tama Region): The average transaction price per square meter was 580,700 yen/m² (year-on-year +5.2%), the only positive year-on-year among non-23-ward areas. Supported by solid owner-occupier demand.
- Southern Area (Yokohama City / Central Kanagawa): The average transaction price per square meter in the Yokohama/Kawasaki area was 616,400 yen/m² (year-on-year -4.3%). Transaction volumes were strong at +33.2%, but prices are in an adjustment phase.
- Shonan Area: The overheating of suburban and resort areas that became popular during the COVID-19 pandemic has calmed, and price adjustments are also progressing.
In summary, the trend is: "Central areas are most active in both prices and transactions," "Near-suburban areas are seeing more transactions but a growing preference for appropriate pricing," and "Suburban areas have seen overheating calm and price adjustments are progressing." Understanding the regulations in rental management is also indispensable for real estate operations in each area.
What Will Happen to the Greater Tokyo Used Condominium Market Going Forward?
In conclusion, the pattern of strong central areas and suburban adjustments is expected to continue for the time being, but a sharp price decline is difficult to envision.
In the short term, the situation of active transactions and declining inventory is expected to persist for the time being. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy remains accommodative, and variable-rate loans are maintained at an extremely low level, so the likelihood of purchasing appetite cooling sharply is low.
- For those considering selling: Transaction prices are in a historically high range and buyer demand is strong, so as long as pricing is not misjudged, selling at a high price can be expected in this market environment. We recommend asking a specialist for a market-priced valuation.
- For those considering buying: Depending on the area and property, room for negotiation is beginning to emerge. With the expectation of higher interest rates ahead, a financial plan that incorporates future interest rate increases is important. Consider also incorporating property management using a stress-free rental management system.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
How many used condominium transactions were completed in Greater Tokyo in March 2025?
There were 4,991 transactions across the Greater Tokyo area, recording a substantial increase of +31.0% from the same month of the previous year. All areas showed increase rates ranging from over 20% to over 50%.
Will used condominium prices fall in the future?
A sharp price decline is difficult to envision as long as new condominium supply continues to decline and inventory shortages persist. However, price adjustments have begun in suburban areas, and depending on the area, there is room for negotiation.
Should I buy in central Tokyo or the suburbs?
If you prioritize stable asset value, central and near-station properties are strong. If you are targeting yield or appreciation potential, suburban and near-suburban areas also deserve attention. Choices based on your budget, lifestyle, and investment objectives are important.
