The peak season in Japan's real estate market is March. In the Greater Tokyo area, the number of concluded rental condominium contracts in the January–March quarter is about 1.4x the July–September quarter, while pre-owned condominium sales peak in March and hit their annual low in January. The number of people moving between municipalities reaches about 2.6x in March compared with August. But what "peak season" actually means shifts by one to two months depending on whether you're looking at rentals, sales, or moving itself. Hearing that "prices drop if you aim for the off-season" doesn't tell you exactly when to act. This article reinterprets monthly data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), the Statistics Bureau of Japan, and REINS (the Real Estate Information Network System for East Japan) from the perspective of renters, sellers, and landlords.
Key points of this article
- The "real estate peak season" actually refers to three separate phenomena: rental contracts peak in the January–March quarter, sales peak in March, and moving peaks from mid-March to early April.
- In the Greater Tokyo area, the number of concluded rental condominium contracts was 43,607 in the January–March 2025 quarter versus 31,002 in the July–September 2025 quarter — a difference of about 1.4x.
- Pre-owned condominium sales have peaked in March and bottomed out in January for two years running, so the idea that "January through March is all peak season" is incorrect.
- The price per square meter for concluded rental condominium contracts in Tokyo's 23 wards has risen about 14% in just over two years, and in some cases the rent increase during the wait cancels out any negotiating gain.
- The "quiet season," when real estate agencies have the lightest workload, is July–September and November.
When Is Japan's Real Estate Peak and Off-Season? The Answer Differs for Rentals, Sales, and Moving
There's no single answer to when Japan's real estate peak season falls. Rental contracts, sales contracts, and actual moves are three separate indicators, and their peaks and troughs land in different months. Remembering it simply as "January–March is peak, July–August is off-season" will lead you astray.
What you need to separate is real estate agencies' workload from the actual number of contracts and move-ins. Workload undeniably builds up from January through March. But in terms of actual numbers, January ranks among the lowest of the year for both sales and relocations — it's a month that's "busy but nothing gets decided." Things get settled in March.
| Indicator | Source | Peak month/period | Lowest month/period | Multiple used in this article |
| Number of concluded contracts for rental residential condominiums (Greater Tokyo area) | REINS | Jan–Mar 2025 quarter: 43,607 | Jul–Sep 2025 quarter: 31,002 | The Jan–Mar quarter is about 1.4x the Jul–Sep quarter |
| Number of concluded pre-owned condominium sales (Greater Tokyo area) | REINS | March 2025: 4,991 | January 2025: 3,242 | Compared by monthly figures (see below) |
| Number of people moving between municipalities (nationwide) | Statistics Bureau of Japan | March 2025: 905,000 people | November 2025: 310,000 people | March is about 2.6x August |
| Number of people moving between prefectures (nationwide) | Statistics Bureau of Japan | March 2025: 518,532 people | August 2025: 161,506 people | March is about 3.2x August |
| Number of moves handled by six major moving companies | MLIT | March | A typical month | March is about 2x a typical month |
The four multiples in the table above each refer to a different indicator. About 1.4x is REINS's rental condominium contract figures, about 2.6x and 3.2x are the Statistics Bureau's relocation figures, and about 2x is MLIT's moving-company figures.
It's also easy to overlook that the peak for rental contracts comes about a month earlier than the peak for moving itself. People often assume "the real estate off-season and the moving industry's off-season are the same," but the period when contracts are thin and the period when people actually stop moving are one to two months apart.
Rental Peak and Off-Season: Greater Tokyo Contract Volume in Jan–Mar Is About 1.4x Jul–Sep
The rental off-season is the July–September quarter. The number of concluded contracts for rental residential condominiums in the Greater Tokyo area was 43,607 in the January–March 2025 quarter and 31,002 in the July–September 2025 quarter. The January–March quarter is about 1.4x the July–September quarter, and about 1.6x for low-rise rental apartments.
| Quarter | Condominium contracts | Apartment contracts |
| Jan–Mar 2025 | 43,607 | 21,133 |
| Apr–Jun 2025 | 35,728 | 13,586 |
| Jul–Sep 2025 | 31,002 | 12,953 |
| Oct–Dec 2025 | 32,031 | 14,327 |
| Apr–Jun 2026 | 30,293 | 13,199 |
Contract volume can be read as "how much listed inventory actually moved." When the total pool differs by 30%, the range of choices and how easily you can negotiate flip accordingly.
| What you want to prioritize | When to act | What you gain | Trade-off you accept |
| Breadth of choice | January–March | The period with the highest contract volume and the deepest listed inventory of the year | Less time to consider, and terms are harder to negotiate |
| Room to negotiate terms | July–September | Contracts are at their lowest and vacancies tend to linger | The overall pool is about 30% smaller, so units near stations or recently built are less likely to remain |
| Total upfront costs | July–September, November | Room to negotiate move-in fees and moving costs | The burden of viewing and moving during the hottest months |
| An April move-in is already set | Start in December–January of the previous year | You can set your priorities before inventory fully appears | Applying too early means paying rent before you move in |
It's safer not to compare based on rent alone. Even if the monthly rent drops by a few thousand yen, annual spending can flip depending on upfront costs. See Breaking Down Rental Move-In Costs and How to Reduce Them to check which items can be adjusted by timing.
Once you've settled on the month to move, the next step is to work backwards from your move-in date. For how many days you'll need for viewings, tenant screening, and notice to your current landlord, see When to Start House Hunting: A Reverse-Calculation Schedule.
The Peak Season for Selling Real Estate Is March: Why "January Is Also Peak" Is a Misconception
March is the peak season for selling real estate. Unlike rentals, the peak here is a single month rather than a quarter. What's worth noting is that January is the month with the fewest concluded sales all year, so "January through March is peak season" doesn't apply to sales.
| Month | 2025 concluded contracts | 2026 concluded contracts (published through June) |
| January | 3,242 (annual low) | 3,343 (annual low) |
| February | 4,152 | 4,241 |
| March | 4,991 (annual high) | 5,001 (annual high) |
| April | 3,950 | 3,903 |
| May | 3,841 | 3,709 |
| June | 4,299 | 4,241 |
| July | 3,979 | — |
| August | 3,553 | — |
| September | 4,475 | — |
| October | 4,222 | — |
| November | 4,435 | — |
| December | 3,975 | — |
The pattern of March being the peak and January the low has now repeated for two years running. The same holds for pre-owned detached houses: in 2025, March saw a high of 2,196 while January saw a low of 1,279.
What matters for sellers is the start date, not the closing date. The process runs from the brokerage agreement through advertising, viewings, negotiation, contract, and settlement, so closing in March requires signing the brokerage agreement in October–December of the previous year. If you start consulting in January, your property won't hit the market until mid-February, missing half of the period when buyers are most active.
There's another point: September and November also see a rise in sales. In 2025, September saw 4,475 concluded sales and November 4,435 — second only to March. This autumn secondary peak isn't visible in rental or moving data, but it's real for sales; if you miss March, the next window is September, meaning you'd need to start in June–July. Checking this alongside How to Judge Selling Timing Using the Real Estate Price Index lets you separate market conditions from seasonality. INA's free consultation can also help you work backward from your target closing date to when to sign the brokerage agreement.
The Peak for Moving Is March and April: Relocation Numbers Are About 2.6x August
Moving is most concentrated from mid-March to early April. According to the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Report on Internal Migration in Japan Based on the Basic Resident Registration, the number of people moving between municipalities in 2025 was 905,000 in March versus 349,000 in August — about 2.6x. Between prefectures, the gap widens to about 3.2x, with 518,532 in March versus 161,506 in August.
| Month | Inter-municipal migrants (2025) |
| January | 327,000 people |
| February | 357,000 people |
| March | 905,000 people |
| April | 684,000 people |
| May | 383,000 people |
| June | 372,000 people |
| July | 398,000 people |
| August | 349,000 people |
| September | 368,000 people |
| October | 380,000 people |
| November | 310,000 people |
| December | 358,000 people |
This table overturns two assumptions. Against the idea that "summer is the off-season," July's 398,000 people is the third-highest month of the year. Against the idea that "autumn is a second peak," September's 368,000 and October's 380,000 both fall below July, and the truly quiet months are November and January.
On January 28, 2026, MLIT's Cargo Distribution Business Division within the Logistics and Automobile Bureau issued a press release calling for moving dates to be spread out. It states that "the number of moves in March is about twice that of a typical month," and that "for the customary peak period of mid-March through early April, it has become difficult to secure both drivers and vehicles." The figures are based on the Japan Trucking Association's survey of six major moving companies.
The same release includes comments from users who shifted their timing, such as "compared to moving on a weekend at the end of March, the moving cost was cheaper" and "shifting my move away from the final week of March made it easier to get a booking." However, no specific price difference is given. There's no official backing for a general rule like "peak season costs X times off-season," so this article avoids making that claim. What is certain is that simply avoiding the last week of March and the first week of April changes how easily you can book.
Why "Wait for the Off-Season and It'll Be Cheaper" Doesn't Hold Up as Well in 2026
In the 2026 rental market, there are cases where deciding now works out cheaper overall than waiting six months to negotiate. That's because market rents themselves are rising while you wait.
The concluded rent for rental condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards rose from 104,000 yen in the January–March 2024 quarter to 132,000 yen in the April–June 2026 quarter. Over the same roughly two years, the price per square meter rose about 14%, from 3,410 yen to 3,899 yen. Even comparing the same April–June quarter to strip out seasonality, the price per square meter is up 5.2% from 3,705 yen in 2025. Meanwhile, the number of concluded contracts in the Greater Tokyo area fell 15.2% over the same period, from 35,728 to 30,293. Prices rising even as transaction volume shrinks is a pattern specific to a market with a vacancy shortage.
| Decision factor | When waiting makes sense | When deciding now makes sense |
| Housing cost while you wait | Waiting cost is close to zero (e.g., staying with family) | You keep paying rent on your current place or carry double costs |
| Trend in asking rents for the area | Flat over the past year, with listings piling up | Price per square meter has risen and listings have decreased over the past year |
| Number of must-have conditions | Flexible enough to choose from whatever's left | Three or more non-negotiable conditions, such as distance to the station, floor, or building age |
| Amount you could realistically negotiate | You can see room to cut more than a few percent off the monthly rent | Even a cut would only be a few thousand yen, not enough to offset the rise from waiting |
The math itself is simple: line up "the monthly rent reduction from negotiating × the lease term" against "months spent waiting × housing cost while waiting" plus "the rise in market rent over that time." If that subtraction doesn't come out positive, there's no reason to wait. The assumption that the off-season is advantageous is a rule of thumb from an era when market rents didn't move.
How to Get Terms Approved During the Off-Season: What Evidence to Use and How to Present It
What determines the outcome of off-season negotiations isn't enthusiasm — it's evidence. That's because what the landlord is weighing is "how many more months will this unit stay vacant if we don't accept this deal."
| Negotiation item | Conditions that make it easier | Evidence you can use | How the landlord perceives it |
| Rent reduction | More than 3 months since listing began and priced above market | Concluded rents and price per square meter for comparable units in the same area and building-age band | Faces the strongest resistance, since it lowers the rent level going forward |
| Reducing or waiving key money | A unit still unlet after the peak season has passed | Months elapsed since listing began | Easier to accept since it's a one-time fee and keeps the rent level intact |
| Free rent period | There's time before the desired move-in date | Expected number of months the unit would otherwise sit vacant | Easy to agree to since it just reallocates an already-expected vacancy loss |
| Adding or upgrading fixtures | An older building that falls short of nearby competitors | Fixture specs of comparable nearby properties | Easier to accept over the long term since it remains a property asset |
How you phrase it also depends on whether you have evidence. Instead of "please make it cheaper," say something like "it's been four months since this listing went up, and concluded rents for comparable buildings in this area run about ◯ yen per square meter. If you waive the key money, I'll apply this week." The more you hand the landlord something they can take through their own approval process, the faster things move. How to Gather the Evidence That Wins a Rent Reduction Negotiation lays out what data to collect.
Note that a free rent period isn't unconditionally a good deal. It often comes paired with an early-termination penalty, and some contracts require you to repay the waived amount if you move out within two years. Check the clause before agreeing.
The Real Estate Peak and Off-Season from an Owner's or Brokerage's Perspective: Designing Your Listing Date and Off-Season Workflow
For landlords, the decisive window isn't January through March — it's the preceding October through December. If a unit you want filled by January–March doesn't have its terms and listing materials ready by December, it will lose out on comparison during the period when inventory is at its deepest.
| Period | What the landlord decides or does |
| July–September | The period with the fewest contracts. Move up major repairs, equipment upgrades, and restoration cost reviews. |
| October–November | Move-out notices increase. Finalize asking rent and move-in fees by checking them against recent transaction data. |
| December | Listing goes live. Update photos, floor plans, and fixture sheets, and secure an advertising budget for the peak season. |
| January–March | Check inquiry and viewing numbers weekly. If a unit isn't filled by the end of February, adjust the terms one notch. |
| April–June | Diagnose the cause of any leftover vacancy — rent, fixtures, photos, or the viewing flow. |
The turning point is the end of February. A unit that hasn't been filled during the January–March quarter won't see the same depth of demand again until the following January, risking nearly a year of vacancy. If there are no viewings by February, deciding whether to move on rent, the move-in fee, or the photos and fixture sheet determines your annual income. How to Run Tenant Recruitment to Keep a Building Fully Occupied lays out the order in which to make that call.
Brokerages see the same seasonal skew — revenue clusters in January–March and thins out in July–September. To avoid burning out our people during the peak season, we use the off-season for maintaining property data and proposing revised terms to owners. If a unit has stayed vacant for a while, use INA's free consultation to review the cause and reconsider the listing terms.
When Are Real Estate Agencies Quietest? The Best Time to Get Attention for Consultations and Viewings
Real estate agencies are quietest in July–September and November. Both contract volume and relocation numbers hit a trough, and foot traffic and inquiries calm down. The busy period is January–March, and in March, contract signings, key handovers, and move-in walkthroughs overlap, leaving the least amount of time per client of the whole year.
What's worth noting is that while the "quiet period" overlaps with the "period with fewer contracts," the "busy period" doesn't overlap with the "period with more contracts." January ranks among the lowest of the year in actual contracts, yet it's peak season in terms of workload — inquiries and viewings pile up, with everything getting settled in March.
If you want to take your time and talk things through, an off-season weekday works well. You can consult the same agent multiple times and work through your priorities together. Requests like examples of local transactions or a count of candidates if you relax one condition also tend to go smoothly. Real Estate Agency Closing Days and the Best Days to Visit covers how to choose the day and time.
The same goes for selling. If you're aiming to close in March, you'd start in October–December, but consulting as early as July–September lets you work through the valuation rationale and sales strategy at a calmer pace. Rather than consulting during the peak season, consult during the off-season so you're ready in time for the peak. That's the surest way to put seasonality to work for you.
Related Reading
- Free Rent Contracts: Penalties and Conditions to Check
- Move-Out Notice Deadlines and the Process Through Relisting
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
When is the peak season for real estate?
March. That said, the shape differs by indicator: rental contracts peak over the January–March quarter, while sales and moving concentrate in March itself. In terms of workload, January–March is the peak season.
When is the peak season for selling real estate?
Concluded sales peak in March and hit their annual low in January. Pre-owned condominium sales in the Greater Tokyo area were highest in March and lowest in January in both 2025 and 2026. Closing in March requires signing the brokerage agreement in October–December of the previous year.
Does rent actually drop during the rental off-season?
Some units do get cheaper, but in 2026 market rents themselves are rising, which can offset the benefit of waiting. The price per square meter for concluded rental condominium contracts in Tokyo's 23 wards has risen about 14% in just over two years. Compare the amount you'd save through negotiation against your housing cost while waiting plus the rent increase over that period.
When are moving costs highest?
From mid-March to early April. MLIT states that the number of moves in March is about twice that of a typical month, and that this period is difficult to handle in terms of both drivers and vehicles. No official statistics show the price difference, so this can't be stated definitively, but avoiding the last week of March makes booking easier.
When are real estate agencies quietest?
July–September and November. Both contract volume and relocation numbers hit a trough, and store visits and inquiries calm down too. If you want to consult in depth, moving during this period makes it easier to get an agent's undivided time.
Sources and References
- REINS, "Transaction Trends for Rental Residential Properties in the Greater Tokyo Area," January–March 2025
- REINS, "Transaction Trends for Rental Residential Properties in the Greater Tokyo Area," July–September 2025
- REINS, "Transaction Trends for Rental Residential Properties in the Greater Tokyo Area," April–June 2026
- REINS, "Monthly Market Watch"
- Statistics Bureau of Japan, "Report on Internal Migration in Japan Based on the Basic Resident Registration," Monthly Results
- MLIT, "Please Help Spread Out Moving Dates!" January 28, 2026 (Reiwa 8)
