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Is Osaka Apartment Investment Profitable? 2026 Yield Reality

Osaka apartment investing: even a 7% headline yield can leave you with only about ¥200,000 (approx. USD 1,300) a year in after-tax cash. Using 2026 Japanese government data, we calculate the real 4.2% expected yield, vacancy rates across Osaka's 24 wards, and after-tax cash flow for international investors.

Last updated: About 19 min read

If you are an international investor weighing whether to buy a whole apartment building in Osaka, Japan, this article rebuilds the return numbers from the ground up using nothing but 2026 Japanese government and industry-association data. Here is the conclusion first: a wood-frame apartment building in Osaka City that looks like it yields 7%+ at the advertised (gross/headline) rate can leave you with only around ¥200,000 a year (approx. USD 1,300 at ¥150/USD) in cash, after vacancy, operating expenses, loan repayment, and tax. The yield institutional investors actually require in Osaka is 4.2%, and roughly 20% of all rental housing stock in Osaka Prefecture sits vacant. Any projection that leaves out these two figures will almost always land on the optimistic side.

Before the numbers, one structural point that surprises most first-time buyers from the US, UK, Australia, or Singapore: this is a uniquely Japanese situation. Japan has no MLS (Multiple Listing Service)-style public database of actual closed transaction prices, and no UK-style Land Registry price-paid dataset that any buyer can search online for free. There is no single source that tells you, instantly and for free, what the apartment building three doors down actually sold for last month. Japan does publish a related but different dataset — the 土地総合情報システム (Land General Information System) run by 国土交通省 (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, MLIT), which anonymizes and delays individual transactions — but it is not a live, address-level sold-price lookup the way Zillow, Rightmove, or a state MLS feed is. That is why this article takes a different approach: instead of pointing to comparable sales, it stitches together seven separate primary sources — 一般財団法人日本不動産研究所 (the Japan Real Estate Institute, JREI), the 公益社団法人大阪府不動産鑑定士協会 (Osaka Real Estate Appraisers Association), 総務省 (the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications), MLIT, 国税庁 (the National Tax Agency, NTA), Osaka Prefecture, and Osaka City — to build Osaka rental yields, ward-by-ward vacancy rates, and a full after-tax cash-flow model from documented, linkable numbers. Every figure below carries its source link, and the model is built so you can substitute your own property's numbers and re-check the math yourself.

Note on currency: JPY figures in this article are converted to USD at an illustrative reference rate of ¥150 = US$1 (as of 2026-08-09) for orientation only. Exchange rates move; use a current rate for your own planning.

Key takeaways

  • As of April 2026, the expected yield investors require for a whole rental building in Osaka is 4.2% for studio (one-room) units and 4.3% for family units — the gap versus Tokyo's Johnan submarket (3.6% / 3.7%) has narrowed to just 0.6 percentage points.
  • Osaka's "5–7% headline (gross) yield" quoted in listings and investors' "4.2% expected yield" are not contradictory. The former is calculated on full-occupancy gross rent; the latter is calculated on Net Operating Income (NOI) after operating costs.
  • Against 1,718,000 occupied rental units in Osaka Prefecture, there are 436,100 vacant units held for rent — about 20% of the entire rental stock stands empty. A 10% vacancy assumption is, if anything, on the optimistic side.
  • Vacancy rates across Osaka City's 24 wards range from 11.1% in Kita Ward to 25.9% in Nishinari Ward — a spread of 14.8 percentage points. "It's inside Osaka City, so it's safe" is not a defensible assumption.
  • The statutory useful life of a wood-frame apartment building is just 22 years. Depending on the building's age, annual depreciation can swing several-fold, moving after-tax cash flow by more than ¥1,000,000 (approx. USD 6,700) a year for an identical property under identical management.

The Verdict: Osaka in 2026 Is Shifting from a "Win on Yield" Market to a "Win on Vacancy and Cash Flow" Market

Whether an Osaka apartment building makes sense is not decided by how high the headline yield looks. It is decided by three variables: where you set your vacancy assumption, at what interest rate and term you can actually borrow, and how much depreciation allowance the building has left.

The reason is simple. Osaka land and property prices keep climbing, while rents have not kept pace. According to MLIT's Reiwa 8 (2026) Official Land Price Publication, residential land in Osaka City rose 6.5% year-on-year. Over the same period, rents in Osaka City — measured by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications' Housing and Land Survey — rose only 5.9% over five years, not one. When price rises faster than rent, yield compresses on the same rental income.

In other words, Osaka in 2026 is ceasing to be a market where "buy cheap, capture a high yield" reliably works. It is becoming a market that rewards owners who can keep units filled and who can model exactly how much survives after tax. What follows sets out the evidence, number by number.

For a US, UK, or Australian investor, this reframing matters: unlike gateway markets where cap-rate compression is driven mainly by institutional capital chasing trophy assets, Osaka's compression is happening in the small, owner-operated apartment building segment — the exact segment overseas buyers most often enter first.

What Is the Real Yield on an Osaka Apartment Building? 2026 Primary-Source Data

As of April 2026, the expected yield investors require for a whole rental building in Osaka is 4.2% for studio-type units and 4.3% for family-type units. These figures come from the 54th Real Estate Investor Survey (published 27 May 2026, covering conditions as of April 2026) conducted semi-annually by 一般財団法人日本不動産研究所 (the Japan Real Estate Institute, JREI) — Japan's most-cited institutional benchmark for required real estate yields, roughly analogous in role to a PwC/RICS or CBRE cap-rate survey in English-speaking markets, though JREI's survey has run since 1988 and is treated as the de facto national reference.

Expected Yields for a Whole Rental Building in Japan's Top 10 Cities (April 2026)

Survey areaStudio (one-room)Change vs. prior surveyFamily typeChange vs. prior survey
Tokyo (Johnan submarket)3.6%-0.1pt3.7%-0.1pt
Yokohama4.2%-0.1pt4.3%0.0pt
Osaka4.2%-0.1pt4.3%0.0pt
Nagoya4.5%0.0pt4.5%0.0pt
Fukuoka4.5%0.0pt4.5%0.0pt
Kyoto4.6%0.0pt4.6%0.0pt
Kobe4.7%0.0pt4.7%0.0pt
Sapporo4.9%-0.1pt5.0%0.0pt
Sendai5.0%0.0pt5.0%0.0pt
Hiroshima5.0%0.0pt5.1%0.0pt

Source: 一般財団法人日本不動産研究所 (Japan Real Estate Institute) "54th Real Estate Investor Survey (as of April 2026)." "Change vs. prior survey" compares against the 53rd survey (October 2025).

Two things stand out. First, Osaka now sits level with Yokohama, and its gap versus Tokyo's Johnan submarket has narrowed to just 0.6 percentage points. Second, in the same survey, 93% of respondent investors said they are "actively pursuing new investment." A crowded field of buyers is good news if you are selling, but it means price competition if you are buying — a dynamic familiar to anyone who has bought in a hot US Sun Belt market or a supply-constrained UK regional city, except here it is compressing yields on assets that already sit below 5%.

Why "4.2% Expected Yield" and "5–7% Headline Yield" Can Both Be True at Once

These two numbers are not contradictory — they are simply measuring different things. Here is how to read them side by side.

MetricNumeratorDenominatorWho uses it
Headline (gross) yieldAnnual rent at full occupancyProperty priceSales flyers, listing portals
NOI yield (cap rate)Effective gross income − operating expensesProperty priceAppraisers, institutional investors
Real (net) yieldEffective gross income − operating expensesProperty price + acquisition costsIndividual investors' decision-making
Cash-on-cash return (CCR)Pre-tax cash flowEquity investedInvestors using leverage

The "7% headline yield" printed on a Japanese sales flyer describes a world with full occupancy, zero operating expenses, no debt service, and no tax. JREI's 4.2% is the number left after deducting vacancy loss and operating costs. As the worked example later in this article shows, a property advertised at a 7.17% headline yield settles at roughly 4.2% once you actually run it on an NOI basis. If you are used to a US or UK listing that already shows a stabilized cap rate, this gap will feel unfamiliar — in Japan, treat the listing headline number as marketing math, not underwriting math, every time. Our companion guide on the difference between gross and net yield and what to watch for when selecting a property goes deeper into how to re-read a Japanese sales flyer.

Expected Yields Across 14 Osaka-Area Micro-Markets (Survey Date: January 2026)

At the area level, a more granular dataset exists. The 公益社団法人大阪府不動産鑑定士協会 (Osaka Real Estate Appraisers Association) publishes a semi-annual survey of expected yields for a standardized asset: a 1K-type (studio) condominium unit within walking distance of a train station, up to about three years old.

AreaExpected yield (Jan 2026)Prior (Jul 2025)Change
Umeda3.59%3.63%-0.04pt
Honmachi3.86%3.91%-0.05pt
Fukushima3.86%3.91%-0.05pt
Tenjinbashisuji-Rokuchome3.91%3.98%-0.07pt
Kyomachibori3.95%4.01%-0.06pt
Horie3.96%3.97%-0.01pt
Tanimachi-Yonchome3.98%4.04%-0.06pt
Kyoto3.99%4.10%-0.11pt
Namba4.01%4.01%0.00pt
Shin-Osaka4.07%4.10%-0.03pt
Abeno4.11%4.16%-0.05pt
Esaka4.15%4.16%-0.01pt
Nishinomiya4.28%4.31%-0.03pt
Takatsuki4.39%4.40%-0.01pt

Source: 公益社団法人大阪府不動産鑑定士協会 (Osaka Real Estate Appraisers Association) "31st Osaka-Area Real Estate Yield Survey by District (survey date: January 2026)." Assumed conditions: within walking distance of a station, up to roughly 3 years old, 1K unit type.

Eight areas are now in the 3% range — the most since the survey began. Umeda posted 3.59%, its lowest reading on record. One caution here: this table describes a new-build, station-walkable, 1K-type product only. You cannot apply these yields directly to a 20-year-old wood-frame apartment building; use this table only for the relative ranking between areas, not as a plug-in number for an older asset.

Confirming Osaka Rents from Government Statistics: Building the Inputs for the Simulation

Every cash-flow model starts with rent. Average monthly rent for rented housing (excluding company-owned housing) in Osaka Prefecture is ¥59,227 (approx. USD 395); in Osaka City it is ¥61,704 (approx. USD 411). Both figures come from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications' Reiwa 5 (2023) Housing and Land Survey, and both rose roughly 6% from the prior Heisei 30 (2018) survey five years earlier.

Osaka Prefecture, Osaka City, and National Rent Comparison

CategoryOsaka PrefectureOsaka CityNational
Average monthly rent, rented housing¥59,227 (USD 395)¥61,704 (USD 411)¥59,656 (USD 398)
vs. prior survey (Heisei 30)+¥3,557 / +6.4%+¥3,458 / +5.9%+7.1%
Private rental, wood-frame¥56,018 (USD 373)—¥54,409 (USD 363)
Private rental, non-wood-frame¥64,961 (USD 433)—¥68,548 (USD 457)
Rent per tatami mat (jō)¥3,546 (USD 24)¥4,134 (USD 28)¥3,403 (USD 23)
Common service / management fee¥3,878 (USD 26)——

Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Statistics Bureau, "Reiwa 5 (2023) Housing and Land Survey: Basic Tabulation on Housing and Households"; Osaka Prefecture "Reiwa 5 Housing and Land Survey: Summary of Results"; Osaka City "Reiwa 5 Housing and Land Survey Results (Confirmed) — Osaka City."

Note the unit used in the third-to-last row above: rent "per jō (畳, tatami mat)." This is a uniquely Japanese pricing convention with no direct Western equivalent — Japanese room sizes, and by extension rent levels, are still commonly benchmarked per tatami mat (1 jō ≈ 1.65 m² ≈ 17.8 sq ft), a unit that traces back to the traditional tatami-mat room module used in Japanese residential design for centuries. Where a US listing prices a unit per square foot and a UK one per square metre, a Japanese landlord or appraiser instinctively reasons in jō. Getting comfortable converting between jō, m², and sq ft is a small but real skill for anyone underwriting Japanese rental property.

The Wood-Frame Apartment Starting Point Is ¥56,018 (USD 373), Not the Prefecture Average

The figure an apartment-building owner should actually use from this table is the private rental, wood-frame figure of ¥56,018 (approx. USD 373) — not the prefecture-wide average of ¥59,227. The gap between wood-frame and non-wood-frame rent is ¥8,943 (approx. USD 60); treating "the Osaka average rent" as a single number misstates your per-unit monthly income by close to ¥9,000. For an 8-unit apartment building, that is roughly ¥860,000 (approx. USD 5,733) a year of error — enough to turn a marginal deal into a losing one before you have even opened a spreadsheet.

Rent per tatami mat in Osaka City is ¥4,134 (approx. USD 28), up 10.4% from the prior survey — well above both the prefecture average of ¥3,546 and the national average of ¥3,403. The structural takeaway: a small unit close to a station inside the city commands a premium per unit of area, while a larger unit built further out struggles to command the same per-unit rate.

Osaka Prefecture's share of multi-family housing (apartment/condominium-type dwellings, as opposed to detached houses) is 57.4% — the third-highest of any prefecture in Japan. This is a dense, single-occupant-oriented rental market, and you should assume a large number of directly comparable units within a short walk of any building you consider.

Reading Osaka's Vacancy Risk in Hard Numbers: Why "10% Vacancy" Is an Optimistic Assumption

Nothing moves a cash-flow model more than the vacancy assumption. Many articles default to a conventional 10%. Osaka's actual data suggests reality runs tighter than that.

Osaka's Rental Stock and Vacant-for-Rent Units

ItemOsaka PrefectureOsaka City
Occupied rented housing1,718,000 units817,500 units
Vacant units held for rent436,100 units204,000 units
Total rental stock2,154,100 units1,021,500 units
Rental-stock vacancy rate20.2%20.0%
Vacancy rate (share of total housing stock)14.2%16.1%

The formula is: vacant units held for rent ÷ (occupied rented housing + vacant units held for rent). The underlying data comes from Osaka Prefecture's and Osaka City's Reiwa 5 (2023) Housing and Land Survey results. Rented housing accounts for 40.9% of Osaka Prefecture's total housing stock, well above the 35.0% national average — this is a rental-dominant market — and yet one in five of those rental units currently sits empty.

That said, you should not simply adopt this 20% figure as your own property's vacancy rate. The "vacant units held for rent" category includes aging buildings that have effectively stopped marketing and old row houses (nagaya, 長屋) that cannot easily be rebuilt under current zoning. The practical, conservative approach is to run the numbers twice — a base case at 10% vacancy and a stress case at 20% — and check that loan repayment still works even at 20%. The worked simulation later in this article shows both cases side by side.

Vacancy Rates Across Osaka City's 24 Wards, Ranked

"It's inside Osaka City, so it's safe" does not hold up to scrutiny. Vacancy rates across the 24 wards span a 14.8-percentage-point range.

RankWardVacancy rate (Reiwa 5 / 2023)Heisei 30 (2018)
1Kita11.1%13.6%
2Tsurumi11.3%11.7%
3Nishi11.5%13.9%
4Joto12.6%12.7%
5Fukushima13.0%12.0%
6Nishiyodogawa13.4%16.8%
7Suminoe13.6%14.7%
8Abeno13.8%16.1%
9Yodogawa14.6%16.7%
10Tennoji14.7%13.1%
11Higashinari14.8%19.6%
12Hirano16.4%15.8%
12Higashiyodogawa16.4%18.4%
14Konohana16.9%17.8%
14Sumiyoshi16.9%20.0%
16Miyakojima17.0%17.4%
17Taisho17.7%19.6%
18Naniwa17.9%17.3%
19Minato18.0%20.3%
20Asahi18.1%18.1%
21Higashisumiyoshi18.2%21.8%
22Chuo18.4%17.8%
23Ikuno22.8%19.8%
24Nishinari25.9%22.5%

Source: Osaka City, "Reiwa 5 (2023) Housing and Land Survey Results (Confirmed) — Osaka City." Vacancy rate is the share of vacant units among total housing units; citywide, 204,000 of Osaka City's 294,600 vacant units (69.2%) are held for rent.

What stands out is which wards got worse since Heisei 30: Nishinari (+3.4pt), Ikuno (+3.0pt), Tennoji (+1.6pt), Fukushima (+1.0pt), Hirano (+0.6pt), Naniwa (+0.6pt), and Chuo (+0.6pt). Chuo, Naniwa, and Fukushima are popular areas where both land prices and rents are rising — yet new-build supply has also increased there, and vacancies climbed alongside it. The data's message is that "a popular area" does not automatically mean "an area that avoids vacancy."

Vacancy Rates and Vacant Rental Units in Osaka Prefecture's Major Cities

CityTotal housing unitsVacant units held for rentVacancy rate
Ibaraki140,100 units8,350 units9.1%
Takatsuki168,900 units8,560 units9.6%
Katano33,460 units1,770 units11.0%
Hirakata195,260 units12,170 units11.4%
Suita211,860 units12,050 units12.0%
Sakai427,800 units30,500 units12.9%
Toyonaka207,120 units16,840 units13.7%
Yao132,670 units11,500 units13.9%
Osaka City1,827,900 units204,000 units16.1%
Higashiosaka281,720 units29,950 units16.3%
Kadoma68,670 units7,330 units17.0%
Moriguchi80,980 units8,170 units17.1%
Kashiwara39,210 units5,150 units20.8%

Source: Osaka Prefecture, "Reiwa 5 (2023) Housing and Land Survey: Summary of Results," vacancy counts and rates by municipality.

A Three-Axis Screen for "Where in Osaka Should I Buy?"

When narrowing down an area, cross-referencing these three axes keeps the decision from drifting on gut feel.

  1. Vacancy rate: within the city, the wards in the 11–14% range (Kita, Tsurumi, Nishi, Joto, Fukushima, Nishiyodogawa, Suminoe, Abeno) rank lowest; within the prefecture, Ibaraki, Takatsuki, Hirakata, and Suita rank lowest.
  2. Rent level: Osaka City's ¥4,134-per-tatami-mat rate is 1.17 times the prefecture average. The practical split is: earn on rate per unit of area inside the city, earn on lower purchase price in the suburbs.
  3. Direction of land prices: residential land in Osaka City rose 6.5% year-on-year (Reiwa 8 / 2026 Official Land Price Publication). Rising prices help you at exit but work against you as a buyer today.

Cross-referenced this way, the wards with low vacancy and strong per-unit rent — roughly Kita, Nishi, Fukushima, and Abeno — also carry the highest property prices, pushing headline yields down into the 5% range. Conversely, the wards where high yields are easiest to find — Nishinari and Ikuno — both carry vacancy rates above 20%, and both are trending upward. In Osaka, "high-yield area" and "low-vacancy area" are, in practical terms, close to inversely correlated. Wards in the middle band — Joto, Yodogawa, Higashiyodogawa, Suminoe — tend to be the most realistic zone for active consideration. An investor coming from a US market where cap rate and vacancy risk often move together in the same direction may find this inverse relationship counterintuitive — it is one of the clearest ways Osaka behaves differently from a typical Sun Belt or UK regional market.

Worked Example 1: A Wood-Frame Apartment Building in Osaka City — From Headline Yield to After-Tax Cash Flow

From here, everything is built up in real yen (and dollar) figures. The conclusion first: even at a 7.17% headline yield, this property leaves ¥195,000 (approx. USD 1,300) a year in pre-tax cash, and just ¥126,000 (approx. USD 840) a year after tax.

Assumptions and the Public Data Behind Them

ItemAssumptionBasis
PropertyOne 8-unit (1K), 10-year-old wood-frame apartment building in Osaka City—
Property price¥75,000,000 (approx. USD 500,000) — land ¥51,000,000 (USD 340,000) / building ¥24,000,000 (USD 160,000)Building/land split based on the fixed-asset tax assessed value ratio
Rent¥56,000 (USD 373) per unit per monthOsaka Prefecture private rental, wood-frame: ¥56,018 (Housing and Land Survey)
Full-occupancy annual income¥5,376,000 (USD 35,840)¥56,000 × 8 units × 12 months
Vacancy / non-payment lossBase case 10% / Stress case 20%Osaka Prefecture rental-stock vacancy rate: 20.2%
Fixed-asset tax assessed valueLand ¥25,000,000 (USD 166,700) / Building ¥12,000,000 (USD 80,000)Assumption used in this example
Loan¥60,000,000 (USD 400,000), 2.5% interest, 25-year term, equal principal-and-interest repaymentAssumption used in this example
Equity¥15,000,000 (USD 100,000) + acquisition costs—

Interest rates and assessed values vary by property, lender, and borrower profile, so they are stated here explicitly as assumptions — substitute your own terms and re-run the numbers. As a public benchmark, the 住宅金融支援機構 (Japan Housing Finance Agency, JHF) publishes rental-housing loan rates, offered in 35-year-fixed and 15-year-fixed formats. JHF explicitly states that "there is no upper or lower limit on the change resulting from the revised applicable interest rate," meaning the rise in your repayment amount once a fixed-rate period ends is a risk you should underwrite from day one, not treat as a tail scenario. This is a materially different risk profile from a US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage locked for the full term, or even a UK 5-year fixed remortgaged into a capped product — in Japan, uncapped repricing risk on rental-property loans is the norm rather than the exception.

Acquisition Costs: Building Up 8.0% of Property Price from Statutory Tax Rates

Acquisition costs are often bundled into a single vague line on a sales flyer. Here they are built up from the underlying tax rates.

ItemCalculationAmount
Real estate acquisition tax (land)¥25,000,000 × 1/2 × 3%¥375,000 (USD 2,500)
Real estate acquisition tax (building)¥12,000,000 × 3%¥360,000 (USD 2,400)
Registration and license tax (land, ownership transfer)¥25,000,000 × 1.5%¥375,000 (USD 2,500)
Registration and license tax (building, ownership transfer)¥12,000,000 × 2.0%¥240,000 (USD 1,600)
Brokerage commission (statutory cap)¥2,000,000 × 5.5% + ¥2,000,000 × 4.4% + ¥71,000,000 × 3.3%¥2,541,000 (USD 16,940)
Stamp duty (sale and purchase agreement)Reduced rate for contracts over ¥50,000,000 up to ¥100,000,000¥30,000 (USD 200)
Judicial scrivener fee / mortgage registration costsAssumption¥390,000 (USD 2,600)
Loan arrangement fee¥60,000,000 × 2.2% (assumption)¥1,320,000 (USD 8,800)
Fire insurance (5-year lump sum, assumption)—¥400,000 (USD 2,667)
Total—¥6,031,000 (USD 40,207) — 8.0% of price

The statutory basis for each rate: the standard real estate acquisition tax rate is 4%, but land and residential building acquisitions completed by 31 March 2027 are taxed at a reduced 3%, and for building land the taxable base is halved to 1/2 of the fixed-asset tax roll value (Osaka Prefecture, "Real Estate Acquisition Tax"). One point that is easy to miss here: the used-housing deduction (up to ¥12,000,000 depending on the building's construction date) applies only where the acquirer will personally occupy the property — it does not apply to a used apartment building acquired for rental purposes. Registration and license tax is treated differently for land and building. For land, the ownership-transfer registration rate was extended by three more years under the Reiwa 8 tax reform, to 31 March 2029, at a reduced 1.5% against a standard rate of 2.0% — and unlike the acquisition-tax deduction above, this reduction carries no owner-occupancy requirement, so it applies equally to investment property. The residential-building reduced rate for the transfer registration (0.3%), on the other hand, does require owner-occupancy, so a rental building is taxed at the standard 2.0% rate (National Tax Agency (NTA), No.7191, Registration and License Tax Rate Table; NTA, "Notice on the Reduced Registration and License Tax Rates" (April 2026)). Our companion guide to real estate acquisition tax reductions and the refund application process covers the full set of requirements, which helps avoid missing an eligible reduction.

Brokerage commission is calculated at the ceiling set by MLIT notice: the sale price is split into a tier up to ¥2,000,000 (5.5%), a tier from ¥2,000,000 to ¥4,000,000 (4.4%), and a tier above ¥4,000,000 (3.3%), and the tier amounts are added together to reach the statutory cap ("Maximum Compensation a Real Estate Broker May Receive for Brokering the Sale of Land or Buildings"). Stamp duty benefits from a temporary reduction on real estate transfer agreements executed by 31 March 2027: for a contract amount over ¥50,000,000 and up to ¥100,000,000, the duty is ¥30,000 (NTA, No.7108).

Holding Costs: Booking 1.4% Fixed-Asset Tax + 0.3% City Planning Tax Annually

Osaka City's fixed-asset tax rate is 1.4% and its city planning tax rate is 0.3%. Because almost all of Osaka City falls within an urbanization promotion area, both taxes apply. This is where the special reduction in taxable base for residential land comes into play.

SubjectTaxable baseRateAnnual tax
Land — fixed-asset tax¥25,000,000 × 1/6 = ¥4,166,7001.4%¥58,333 (USD 389)
Land — city planning tax¥25,000,000 × 1/3 = ¥8,333,3000.3%¥25,000 (USD 167)
Building — fixed-asset tax¥12,000,0001.4%¥168,000 (USD 1,120)
Building — city planning tax¥12,000,0000.3%¥36,000 (USD 240)
Total——¥287,333 (USD 1,916)

For small residential land (up to 200 m² per housing unit), the fixed-asset tax taxable base is reduced to 1/6 of assessed value, and the city planning tax base to 1/3. Crucially, this reduced rate is set per housing unit, so an 8-unit apartment building qualifies for the small-residential-land treatment on up to 1,600 m² of land (Osaka City, "Special Reduction of the Taxable Base for Residential Land"; Osaka City, "Overview of Fixed-Asset Tax and City Planning Tax"). The more units a building has, the lighter its per-unit land tax burden — a multi-unit structural advantage with no exact equivalent in most Western property-tax systems, where per-parcel tax generally does not scale down with unit count in the same mechanical way. Without this special reduction, land tax alone would run ¥425,000 (USD 2,833) a year — a difference of over ¥137,000 (USD 913).

The Four-Stage Waterfall: Headline Yield → NOI Yield → CCR → After-Tax Cash Flow

StageBase case (10% vacancy)Stress case (20% vacancy)
Full-occupancy annual income¥5,376,000 (USD 35,840)¥5,376,000 (USD 35,840)
Effective gross income¥4,838,400 (USD 32,256)¥4,300,800 (USD 28,672)
Management fee (5% of effective gross income)¥241,920 (USD 1,613)¥215,040 (USD 1,434)
Fixed-asset tax + city planning tax¥287,333 (USD 1,916)¥287,333 (USD 1,916)
Repairs and restoration costs¥400,000 (USD 2,667)¥400,000 (USD 2,667)
Leasing/advertising costs¥224,000 (USD 1,493)¥224,000 (USD 1,493)
Fire insurance (annualized), shared utilities, contingency¥260,000 (USD 1,733)¥260,000 (USD 1,733)
Total operating expenses¥1,413,253 (USD 9,422)¥1,386,373 (USD 9,242)
NOI (Net Operating Income)¥3,425,147 (USD 22,834)¥2,914,427 (USD 19,430)
Headline (gross) yield7.17%7.17%
NOI yield (÷ property price)4.57%3.89%
Real yield (÷ total investment of ¥81,030,000 / USD 540,200)4.23%3.60%
Annual loan repayment (¥60,000,000, 2.5%, 25 years)¥3,230,040 (USD 21,534)¥3,230,040 (USD 21,534)
Pre-tax cash flow¥195,107 (USD 1,301)-¥315,613 (-USD 2,104)
Cash-on-cash return (CCR)0.93%-1.50%

This is where the opening question resolves. Run the numbers on a property advertised at a 7.17% headline yield, and the real yield on total investment lands at 4.23% — nearly identical to the 4.2% expected yield JREI's institutional investors report for Osaka. The 7.17% on the sales flyer and the 4.2% in the investor survey are the same property wearing two different faces.

And set the vacancy rate to 20% and pre-tax cash flow flips to an annual loss of ¥315,600 (approx. -USD 2,104). Given that one in five units across Osaka's rental stock currently sits vacant, this model cannot responsibly ignore that scenario.

How Much Does a 1-Point Rise in Interest Rates Cost You?

Interest rateAnnual repaymentPre-tax cash flow
1.5%¥2,879,542 (USD 19,197)¥545,605 (USD 3,637)
2.0%¥3,051,751 (USD 20,345)¥373,396 (USD 2,489)
2.5% (base case)¥3,230,040 (USD 21,534)¥195,107 (USD 1,301)
3.0%¥3,414,321 (USD 22,762)¥10,826 (USD 72)
3.5%¥3,604,490 (USD 24,030)-¥179,343 (-USD 1,196)

A single one-point move in the interest rate, from 2.5% to 3.5%, cuts annual cash flow by ¥374,000 (approx. USD 2,493) and flips the property into a loss — even while holding the vacancy rate at a stable 10%. If you plan to use a variable rate, or a fixed rate that reprices after an initial period, this sensitivity is worth confirming before you sign, not after.

Loan term matters just as much. Wood construction carries a short, 22-year statutory useful life, which structurally limits how long a lender will extend the loan term.

Loan termAnnual repaymentPre-tax cash flow
15 years¥4,800,882 (USD 32,006)-¥1,375,735 (-USD 9,172)
20 years¥3,815,301 (USD 25,435)-¥390,154 (-USD 2,601)
22 years¥3,548,448 (USD 23,656)-¥123,301 (-USD 822)
25 years (base case)¥3,230,040 (USD 21,534)¥195,107 (USD 1,301)
30 years¥2,844,870 (USD 18,966)¥580,277 (USD 3,869)

At a term of 22 years or shorter, this property runs at a loss under these assumptions. When evaluating a wood-frame apartment building, confirming with the lender how many years they will actually extend the loan moves the needle on cash flow more than negotiating the purchase price does.

Price Decides Cash Flow: Comparing Across Headline Yields

Property priceHeadline yieldPre-tax CFEquityCCR
¥67,200,000 (USD 448,000)8.00%¥531,031 (USD 3,540)¥18,840,000 (USD 125,600)2.82%
¥71,680,000 (USD 477,900)7.50%¥338,090 (USD 2,254)¥20,100,000 (USD 134,000)1.68%
¥75,000,000 (USD 500,000)7.17%¥195,107 (USD 1,301)¥21,030,000 (USD 140,200)0.93%
¥80,640,000 (USD 537,600)6.67%-¥47,793 (-USD 319)¥22,610,000 (USD 150,700)-0.21%

Equity ratio, interest rate (2.5%), and term (25 years) are held fixed; only price moves. Equity includes acquisition costs, calculated at 8.0% of price. On identical rental income, buying at a 6.67% headline yield produces a loss, while buying at 8.00% produces a 2.8% CCR. In Osaka apartment investing, the single largest driver of after-tax cash flow is the acquisition price — not the skill with which you manage the asset afterward.

Worked Example 2: How Depreciation on a Wood-Frame Apartment Building Decides Your After-Tax Cash Flow

Everything so far has been pre-tax. The final variable is depreciation. On the identical property, under identical management, after-tax cash flow can swing by more than ¥1,000,000 (approx. USD 6,700) a year purely as a function of the building's age.

The 22-Year Statutory Useful Life, and the Simplified Method for Used Buildings

A building's statutory useful life is fixed by its structure and use.

StructureUseStatutory useful life
Wood / synthetic resinRetail / residential22 years
Wood-frame mortarRetail / residential20 years
Brick / stone / blockRetail / residential38 years
Steel-reinforced concrete / reinforced concreteResidential47 years

Source: National Tax Agency (NTA), "Table of Useful Lives for Major Depreciable Assets."

For a used building where the remaining useful life is difficult to estimate directly, a simplified method is available (NTA, No.5404, "Useful Life of Used Assets"):

  • Asset that has fully exceeded its statutory useful life: statutory useful life × 20%
  • Asset that has partly used its statutory useful life: (statutory useful life − years elapsed) + years elapsed × 20%
  • Round down fractions of less than one year; if the result is under 2 years, use 2 years

Applied to a wood-frame apartment building: at 10 years old, (22−10) + 10×20% = 14 years; at 25 years old (past the full statutory life), 22×20% = 4.4, rounded down to 4 years. Note that this simplified method cannot be used if capital expenditure incurred to place the asset into service exceeds 50% of the acquisition cost. Our companion guide to calculating depreciation from useful life and years elapsed walks through the calculation pattern in more detail, which speeds up comparing properties of different ages.

After-Tax Cash Flow by Building Age

Holding the building allocation at ¥24,000,000 (USD 160,000), vacancy at 10%, and every other condition identical, only the depreciation period changes below. Combined marginal income and resident tax rate is assumed at 30% (20% income tax + 10% resident tax, for the bracket applying to taxable income between roughly ¥3,300,000 and ¥6,950,000, or approx. USD 22,000–46,300).

ItemNew build (22-yr depreciation)10 years old (14-yr depreciation)25 years old (4-yr depreciation)
Annual depreciation¥1,090,909 (USD 7,273)¥1,714,286 (USD 11,429)¥6,000,000 (USD 40,000)
Real estate income (year 1)¥854,200 (USD 5,695)¥230,823 (USD 1,539)-¥4,054,891 (-USD 27,033)
Income tax + resident tax¥256,260 (USD 1,708)¥69,247 (USD 462)-¥914,540 (-USD 6,097) [refund]
Pre-tax cash flow¥195,107 (USD 1,301)¥195,107 (USD 1,301)¥195,107 (USD 1,301)
After-tax cash flow-¥61,153 (-USD 408)¥125,860 (USD 839)¥1,109,647 (USD 7,398)

One caution on the 25-year-old column: of the ¥4,054,891 real estate loss, the portion attributable to interest on debt used to acquire the land (in this example, the land's 68% share of the loan, or ¥1,006,000 / USD 6,707) cannot be offset against other income under Japan's loss-offset rules (NTA, No.1391, "When Real Estate Income Is a Loss"). The table above already nets this out, calculating the refund on the reduced ¥3,048,000 (USD 20,320) loss figure. A projection that ignores this rule overstates your refund by roughly 10%.

Japan's income tax rate is progressive, running from 5% to 45% across seven brackets — the higher your marginal rate, the larger the cash benefit of accelerated depreciation (NTA, No.2260, "Income Tax Rates"). This progressive-bracket mechanic will feel familiar to a US or UK investor, but the depreciation lever attached to it — a fully deductible, non-cash expense tied to a short statutory schedule — is considerably more aggressive than US MACRS residential depreciation (27.5 years straight-line) or UK capital allowances on residential lettings (generally far more restricted since the 2016 wear-and-tear allowance changes).

When Does the "Dead Cross" Arrive?

The ¥1,100,000-a-year depreciation benefit on the 25-year-old building runs out after just 4 years. Look at what happens in year 5.

ItemYears 1–4Year 5 onward
Annual depreciation¥6,000,000 (USD 40,000)¥0
Real estate income-¥4,054,891 (-USD 27,033)¥2,128,957 (USD 14,193)
Income tax + resident tax-¥914,540 (-USD 6,097) [refund]¥638,687 (USD 4,258)
After-tax cash flow¥1,109,647 (USD 7,398)-¥443,580 (-USD 2,957)

The instant depreciation ends, paper profit appears on the books and actual cash in hand shrinks. This is the "dead cross" (デッドクロス) — a term used in Japanese real estate investment circles for the point at which taxable income rises sharply even though operating cash flow has not improved, purely because the depreciation shield has run out. A gain of ¥1,100,000 a year flips to a loss of ¥440,000, a swing of roughly ¥1,530,000 (approx. USD 10,200).

This is exactly why, before buying an older wood-frame apartment building, we recommend deciding in advance whether you will sell in the year depreciation runs out, or hold through the dead cross. If you plan to hold, you need either another income source to absorb the post-dead-cross loss, or a plan to compress interest cost through early repayment. If you plan to sell, confirm the holding-period threshold first: ownership of more than 5 years as of 1 January of the year of transfer qualifies as long-term capital gains (15% income tax + 5% resident tax), while 5 years or less is short-term (30% income tax + 9% resident tax) (NTA No.3208 and No.3211). Because the building's tax cost basis is reduced by cumulative depreciation claimed during ownership, a fully depreciated property also tends to show a larger taxable capital gain on sale — factor that in as well.

What Should You Buy in Osaka? Wood-Frame Apartments vs. Whole RC Buildings vs. Condo Units vs. Detached Rentals

If you are at the stage of deciding to enter the Osaka rental market at all, it is worth lining up the alternatives to a wood-frame apartment building before committing.

Comparison pointWood-frame apartmentWhole RC buildingSectional condo unitDetached-house rental
Statutory useful life22 years47 years47 years (if RC)22 years (wood)
Annual depreciation
(on a ¥24,000,000 / USD 160,000 building allocation)
approx. ¥1,090,000 (USD 7,267)approx. ¥510,000 (USD 3,400)approx. ¥510,000 (USD 3,400)approx. ¥1,090,000 (USD 7,267)
Short-term tax-shield effectLarge (larger when older)SmallSmallLarge
Ease of extending loan termLimitedExtends wellExtends wellLimited
Investment per unitMediumLargeSmallMedium
Income if one unit is vacantOffset by other unitsOffset by other unitsDrops to zeroDrops to zero
Exit liquidityMedium (buyer pool is investors)Medium-low (higher price band)High (owner-occupiers buy too)High (owner-occupiers buy too)
Where it fits in OsakaMid-ring city wards, prefecture's core citiesCentral city wardsUmeda / Honmachi / Namba areaSuburban family-demand areas

The useful-life figures come from NTA's useful-life table. The key takeaway is that a wood-frame apartment building is a "front-load the depreciation, run it on a shorter loan" product, while a whole RC building is a "borrow long, hold long" product. The former suits investors in a high marginal tax bracket; the latter suits investors who want a lower debt-service ratio and steadier operations. Our practical comparison of wood, steel, and RC construction types, including build cost and sound insulation, covers the differences in more depth.

Reading Osaka's Market Conditions: Land Prices, Post-Expo, and the IR Timeline (as of August 2026)

Reiwa 8 (2026) Official Land Price Publication: Osaka-Area Residential Land +2.5%, Osaka City Residential Land +6.5%

Region / areaResidential land changeCommercial land change
National+2.1%+4.3%
Greater Tokyo+4.5%+9.3%
Greater Osaka+2.5%+7.3%
Greater Nagoya+1.9%+3.3%
Osaka Prefecture+2.8%+8.5%
Osaka City+6.5%+12.7%
Fukuoka Prefecture+3.7%+5.2%

Source: MLIT, "Summary of the Reiwa 8 (2026) Official Land Price Publication" (valuation date 1 January 2026, published 17 March 2026), and the accompanying press release. The single highest-priced residential point in the Osaka area is in Fukushima 3-chome, Fukushima Ward, Osaka City, at ¥1,470,000/m² (approx. USD 9,800/m²), up 8.9%.

A 6.5% annual rise in Osaka City residential land prices means that, for identical rent, yield is compressing by roughly 6.5% a year on the property side alone. Rising land prices benefit unrealized gains for existing owners and the eventual exit price, but they work against anyone buying today.

The Expo Closed in 2025; the Osaka IR Is Targeted for 2030

The 2025 Osaka-Kansai Expo closed in 2025. Any investment case built on the "Expo effect" as a future catalyst is now looking backward, not forward. The Osaka Integrated Resort (IR) project, by contrast, is still ahead: Osaka Prefecture, Osaka City, and Osaka IR Co., Ltd. are targeting an opening around autumn 2030, and a groundbreaking ceremony was held on 24 April 2025, with construction now underway (Osaka Prefecture, "Commencement of Osaka IR Construction Work and Groundbreaking Ceremony").

That said, the opening is still four years away. We would not recommend buying at today's price on the assumption of demand that materializes four years from now. Anticipation of the IR is already substantially priced in, and how much rental demand it generates, and in which specific wards, remains speculative at this point. Treat the IR and the Umekita redevelopment as reasons to hold a property you already own, not as the reason to buy one now.

Osaka Prefecture's Household Count Peaks Around 2030

YearTotal general householdsSingle-person households
20204,127,0001,727,000
20254,214,0001,841,000
20304,215,000 (peak)1,900,000
20354,150,0001,912,000 (peak)
20404,041,0001,885,000
20503,767,0001,784,000

Source: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), "Household Projections for Japan by Prefecture (Reiwa 6 / 2024 Projection)."

The household count that underpins rental demand is projected to peak in Osaka Prefecture around 2030 and decline 8.7% from 2020 levels by 2050. Single-person households — the segment most relevant to studio-type rental buildings — peak later, around 2035, before easing off gradually. Buy in 2026 and hold for 10 years, and you sit within the demand peak; hold for 25 years, and the back half of that period runs through a shrinking market. If you are financing over a 25-year term, building a sale option at year 10 or year 15 into your exit plan from the outset makes later decisions considerably easier. This demographic ceiling is worth sitting with if you are used to a US Sun Belt or Australian capital-city market where population growth is still the base case — in much of Japan, including Osaka, flat-to-declining household counts are the base case instead, and the investment thesis has to work without population tailwinds.

Five Things to Decide Before You Start Apartment Investing in Osaka

  1. What vacancy rate will you underwrite? Run both a 10% base case and a 20% stress case, and only consider price points where repayment still works at 20%.
  2. How many years can you actually finance? Wood's statutory useful life is 22 years. Confirm the term with your lender before you negotiate price — at 22 years or under, this article's example property runs at a loss.
  3. Can you absorb a 1-point rate increase? Check whether cash flow survives a move from 2.5% to 3.5%. There is no cap on the repricing that follows the end of a fixed-rate period.
  4. What happens the year depreciation runs out? On an older building, depreciation can be exhausted in 4 to 14 years. Decide, before you buy, whether you will sell in the dead-cross year or hold through it.
  5. Who will manage the property? The gap between 10% and 20% vacancy is ¥510,000 (approx. USD 3,400) a year under this article's assumptions. Management quality is a direct driver of your return.

How to Choose a Management Company: Check Their Rental Housing Management Business Registration

The first thing to check when selecting a management company is whether they hold Rental Housing Management Business registration. Under Japan's Act on Proper Management of Rental Housing Management Business, operators managing 200 or more units are legally required to register with the Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (registration is optional below 200 units). Registered operators are required to station at least one Business Manager at each branch or office, and to provide a written explanation of fees and the content and method of management services before signing a management agreement with an owner (MLIT, "Key Points of the Rental Housing Management Business Registration System").

Registration status, whether a Business Manager is on staff, and whether the required disclosure was actually provided — all three are things you can verify before signing. Beyond that, look for a manager who can speak to leasing rates and leasing track record in specific Osaka wards with actual numbers, not generalities. Our guide to the roles, types, and selection criteria for rental management companies lays out the differences between brokerage-only, management-only, and full-service providers.

At INA&Associates, we manage rental property on the belief that our people — jinzai (人財, literally "human treasure," a term some Japanese companies use in place of the more common 人材/"human resource" to signal that people are viewed as an asset to be invested in, not a cost to be minimized) — are our greatest asset. Filling a vacant unit is never purely a matter of systems; it takes people who genuinely understand the local market and the lives of the tenants living in it. As this article has shown, the quality of management shows up in your bottom line as a difference of hundreds of thousands of yen a year.

Conclusion: Osaka Apartment Investing Is "Underwritten by the Numbers, Realized by the Numbers"

Whether apartment investing in Osaka pays off in 2026 is not decided by how popular a neighborhood sounds. It comes down to four numbers: acquisition price (headline yield), vacancy rate, financing terms, and depreciation schedule.

Under this article's assumptions — 7.17% headline yield, 10% vacancy, 2.5% interest, 25-year term — pre-tax cash flow came to ¥195,000 (approx. USD 1,300) a year. Buy at an 8.00% headline yield instead and it rises to ¥531,000 (approx. USD 3,540); buy at 6.67% and it turns negative. Push vacancy to 20% and it turns negative. Push the interest rate to 3.5% and it turns negative. Given that roughly 20% of Osaka's entire rental stock currently sits vacant, none of these stress cases is an unreasonably pessimistic assumption — they are close to today's actual market conditions.

Osaka offers an easier path to yield than Tokyo, and its base of rental demand is larger too. Even so, once you run the numbers against public data, what is left over is thin. That is exactly why we believe locking down price, financing, vacancy, and tax as hard numbers before you buy — not after — is the path that actually preserves capital over the long run.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1. What yield should I expect from apartment investing in Osaka?

Investors' required (expected) yield for a whole rental building in Osaka is 4.2% for studio units and 4.3% for family units (Japan Real Estate Institute, 54th Real Estate Investor Survey, as of April 2026). This is calculated on an NOI (Net Operating Income) basis, after operating expenses. Headline yields quoted on sales flyers run 2–3 percentage points higher, so treat a property advertised in the 7% range as one that will likely settle in the low-4% range once actually operated.

Q2. Which ward of Osaka City is best for apartment investing?

By vacancy rate, the lowest are Kita (11.1%), Tsurumi (11.3%), Nishi (11.5%), Joto (12.6%), and Fukushima (13.0%) (Osaka City, Reiwa 5 / 2023 Housing and Land Survey). However, low-vacancy wards also carry higher property prices, pushing headline yields down into the 5% range. Joto, Yodogawa, Higashiyodogawa, and Suminoe sit in the middle band between yield and vacancy risk, and tend to be the most realistic candidates. Among cities in the wider prefecture, Ibaraki (9.1%) and Takatsuki (9.6%) post the lowest vacancy rates.

Q3. What vacancy rate should I use in my calculations?

We recommend running two cases: a 10% base case and a 20% stress case. Osaka Prefecture's rental stock — 1,718,000 occupied rented units plus 436,100 vacant units held for rent — carries a 20.2% vacancy rate. That 20% figure includes aging properties that have effectively stopped marketing, so you should not apply it directly to your own property, but it is worth confirming whether your purchase price still services its debt even at 20% vacancy.

Q4. Over how many years can I depreciate a used wood-frame apartment building?

Wood construction carries a 22-year statutory useful life. For a used building, the simplified method gives (22−10) + 10×20% = 14 years at 10 years old, or 22×20% = 4 years (rounded down) once the building has passed 25 years of age, i.e., beyond its full statutory life (NTA, No.5404). The shorter the depreciation period, the larger the annual depreciation expense and the larger the tax-shield benefit — but the sooner you hit the "dead cross," when taxable income jumps the year after depreciation ends.

Q5. What percentage of the purchase price should I budget for acquisition costs?

In this article's example — a ¥75,000,000 (approx. USD 500,000) used wood-frame apartment building — real estate acquisition tax (¥735,000 / USD 4,900), registration and license tax (¥615,000 / USD 4,100), brokerage commission (¥2,541,000 / USD 16,940), and stamp duty (¥30,000 / USD 200) added up to a total of ¥6,031,000 (USD 40,207), or 8.0% of price. The reduced 1.5% registration and license tax rate on land applies to investment property too, but the used-housing acquisition-tax deduction and the residential-building registration tax reduction both require owner-occupancy, so neither applies to a rental purchase. Compared with a scenario where those deductions were available, the building-side costs alone run over ¥500,000 (approx. USD 3,333) higher.

Sources and References

The calculations in this article are estimates based on public data. For tax judgments specific to your own property or income situation, please consult a licensed tax accountant (税理士, zeirishi) or other qualified professional.

Daisuke Inazawa, President & CEO of INA&Associates Inc.

Author

President & CEO — INA&Associates Inc.

President & CEO of INA&Associates Inc. Leads real estate brokerage, rental leasing, and property management across Greater Tokyo and the Kansai region. Specialises in income-property investment strategy and advisory for ultra-high-net-worth individuals.

Daisuke Inazawa is the President and CEO of INA&Associates Inc., a Japanese real estate firm headquartered in Osaka with a Tokyo branch. He leads the company's three core businesses — real estate sales brokerage, rental leasing, and property management — across the Greater Tokyo Area and the Kansai region.

His areas of expertise include investment strategy for income-generating real estate, profitability optimisation of rental operations, real estate advisory for ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs) and institutional investors, and cross-border real estate investment. He provides data-driven, long-horizon advisory to investors in Japan and overseas.

Under the management philosophy "a company's most important asset is its people," he positions INA&Associates as a "people-investment company" and is committed to sustainable corporate-value creation through talent development. He also writes and speaks publicly on leadership and organisational culture in times of change.

He has passed eleven Japanese professional qualification examinations: Licensed Real Estate Broker (Takken), Certified Real Estate Consulting Master, Licensed Condominium Manager, Licensed Building Management Supervisor, Certified Rental Housing Management Professional, Gyōseishoshi Lawyer (administrative scrivener), Certified Personal Information Protection Officer, Class-A Fire Prevention Manager, Certified Auctioned Real Estate Specialist, Certified Condominium Maintenance Engineer, and Licensed Moneylending Operations Supervisor.

  • Licensed Real Estate Broker (Takken)
  • Certified Real Estate Consulting Master
  • Licensed Condominium Manager
  • Licensed Building Management Supervisor
  • Certified Rental Housing Management Professional
  • Gyōseishoshi Lawyer (Administrative Scrivener)
  • Certified Personal Information Protection Officer
  • Class-A Fire Prevention Manager
  • Certified Auctioned Real Estate Specialist
  • Certified Condominium Maintenance Engineer
  • Licensed Moneylending Operations Supervisor