In recent years, the used condominium market in Greater Tokyo has seen continued price increases, which may appear to be a good opportunity for those considering selling. However, looking at the market broadly, there is a notable trend of prolonged sales periods, particularly for high-end properties.
In this article, INA&Associates Co., Ltd. will explain, from the frontlines of real estate practice, "the reasons why sales of high-end properties are taking longer" and "the latest trends in luxury rental condominium prices," with professional insights in an easy-to-understand manner. We hope this will serve as a helpful reference for those considering selling or managing real estate.
Current State of the Greater Tokyo Used Condo Market and Price Divergence
Currently, in the Greater Tokyo used condominium market, the overheating of price increases is contributing to a growing number of cases where sales periods are prolonged. According to periodic reports from the East Japan Real Estate Distribution Organization (REINS), since early 2025, a significant gap has emerged between the "contract price per square meter" for completed transactions and the "inventory price per square meter" for properties listed on the market.
| Indicator | Situation | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Contract Price per ㎡ | Rising trend, but growth rate slowing | Actual transaction prices are difficult to meet market expectations |
| Inventory Price per ㎡ | Continuing rapid increases | Sellers' asking prices remain high |
| Price Divergence | Notably expanding since early 2025 | Prospective buyers cannot keep up with price increases |
As this data shows, the situation where the price buyers can actually pay (contract price) is falling behind the price sellers are asking for (inventory price) is becoming clear. While prices overall are at a high level, they are beginning to exceed the purchasing power of end-user buyers, raising the hurdles to completing transactions.
The figure below is an excerpt from the "Summary Report Q4 2025 (October–December)" published by the East Japan Real Estate Distribution Organization. It shows the trend in contract ㎡ price, new listing ㎡ price, and inventory ㎡ price at a glance.
Two Main Reasons Why Sales of High-End Properties (Over ¥200 Million) Are Prolonging
For high-end properties exceeding ¥200 million in particular, the prolongation of sales periods is notable. The main reasons I feel through practice can be summarized in the following two points.
1. Changes in Investment Trends Among Asian Wealthy Investors
The most significant factor is the change in the willingness of wealthy investors from overseas, particularly Asia, to purchase Japanese real estate. From around October 2025, there has been a gradual trend of these investors pulling back from purchasing Japanese real estate.
To be precise, it is not just a pullback from buying, but there is a high possibility that some are switching to "selling" to lock in profits. The slowdown in the movement of overseas investors, who had been the primary demand source for high-end properties, has changed the balance between supply and demand.
2. Limited Absolute Number of Domestic Buyers (The Mortgage Wall)
Another reason is the limited absolute number of domestic buyers within Japan.
The pool of buyers is limited to a segment of wealthy individuals, and there tends to be a considerable amount of time required to match with buyers. The higher the price range, the more this structural challenge of "a small absolute number of buyers" becomes apparent.
| Factor | Details | Impact on Sales |
|---|---|---|
| Change in Asian Wealthy Investor Trends | From around October 2025, pulling back from buying, some switching to selling | Rapid decline in demand extending sales periods |
| Mortgage Cap (¥200M Wall) | Over ¥200M requires cash, limiting buyers to wealthy individuals | Matching takes considerable time |
| Contract/Inventory Price Divergence | Gap between sellers' asking prices and buyers' purchasing power widening | Price negotiations tend to be difficult |
Summary
In this article, we explained the background of prolonged sales of high-end properties in the Greater Tokyo used condominium market and the latest trends in luxury rental condominium prices. The key points can be summarized in the following three:
First, the gap between contract prices and inventory prices has been expanding since early 2025, and the situation continues where prospective buyers' purchasing power cannot keep up with rising prices. Second, two structural factors are overlapping: observations of net selling by Asian wealthy investors and the mortgage cap (the ¥200M wall), prolonging sales periods for high-end properties.
The real estate market is constantly changing, and for selling and managing high-end properties in particular, a meticulous strategy based on the latest market trends is essential. INA&Associates Co., Ltd. offers optimal real estate solutions tailored to each individual's situation, primarily for ultra-wealthy clients. If you have any questions about sales strategies for high-end properties or rental management, please feel free to contact us.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. What are the key points for selling a property worth over ¥200 million quickly?
Since the target demographic is limited, it is important to work with a real estate company that has a wealthy network both domestically and internationally. Also, calmly analyzing market transaction data published by REINS and setting an appropriate price close to contract prices rather than inventory prices is key to early sales. A flexible pricing strategy aligned with market realities, rather than sticking to hoped-for prices, is required.
Q2. Will used condominium prices in Greater Tokyo decline in the future?
The outlook differs depending on the area and grade of the property. General properties targeting end-user buyers may see price adjustments as the gap between contract prices and inventory prices is corrected. On the other hand, high-grade properties in prime central locations with limited availability tend to maintain their asset value. Rather than a uniform decline across the entire market, a "polarization" of individual properties is likely to progress.
Q3. Is renting out rather than selling an effective option?
Yes, it is one effective option in the current market environment. Since luxury rental condominium rents are trending upward, a strategy of obtaining stable income gains (rental income) while watching for future optimal selling timing is certainly feasible. However, renting out may change conditions at the time of sale, so we recommend consulting a specialist for detailed simulations.
Q4. What is expected of Asian wealthy investor trends going forward?
At present, Asian wealthy investors appear to be continuing a trend of actively selling Japanese real estate. However, depending on the maintenance of yen weakness levels, Japan's political stability, and changes in economic conditions across Asian countries, there is a possibility they could return to buying. Since this trend is directly linked to the high-end property market, continued monitoring is necessary.
Q5. Is it still not too late to invest in luxury rental condominiums?
Given the current situation of continuing rental price increases, it remains an attractive option from an income gain perspective. However, since purchase prices are also at high levels, it is necessary to carefully calculate returns. We recommend making a long-term judgment after comprehensively evaluating the property's scarcity, location, and management conditions.
